Analysts Predict Gradual Recovery of Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Post-Ceasefire
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are anticipated to recover slowly following a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Analysts from Macquarie have identified logistical constraints, geopolitical risks, and a backlog of stranded crude as significant factors limiting the pace of recovery. Despite the ceasefire easing immediate concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, the full resumption of oil flows remains uncertain. Approximately 136 million barrels of crude and refined products are currently stranded in the Gulf, creating a backlog that will take time to clear. The recovery process is expected to be phased, with initial increases in shipments potentially occurring within two to four weeks, followed by further ramp-up over an additional two to four weeks, assuming ceasefire conditions persist. Onshore storage may help offset delays in upstream restarts, although some oilfields may face challenges in returning to full production rates. 
