OECD Warns Middle East Conflict Could Trigger Global Recession
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, could lead to a global recession and heightened inflation. The ongoing risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced traffic, impacting global supplies of crude oil, fuel products, and natural gas. This disruption is expected to slow global growth to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into recession. The OECD highlights that energy-related costs are the primary driver of inflationary pressures, affecting shipping, groceries, and fertilizer prices.