Climate Change's Worst-Case Scenario RCP 8.5 Officially Retired
The climate scenario known as RCP 8.5, which projected extreme global warming of up to 4°C to 5°C by 2100, has been officially retired by scientists. This scenario, once widely used in climate impact studies and media coverage, was based on assumptions of unchecked fossil fuel use and population growth. However, recent trends in emissions, clean energy advancements, and policy changes have rendered it implausible. According to a paper published in Geoscientific Model Development, the scenario will no longer be included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) upcoming Seventh Assessment Report. Instead, the central estimate for global warming by 2100 is now approximately 2.8°C, reflecting significant progress in mitigating climate risks. This shift marks a departure from the apocalyptic projections that dominated climate discourse for over a decade.