1960 Population Forecast of Infinite Growth by November 2026 Proves Incorrect, Highlighting Model Limitations
A 1960 forecast by Heinz von Foerster and colleagues predicted that the human population would reach infinity by November 2026. This prediction, published in Science under the title "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," utilized a hyperbolic growth model, which assumes that the population growth rate itself increases as the population grows. While the model accurately tracked population changes until the late 1970s, with the global population reaching approximately 8.3 billion by mid-next month, it falls significantly short of the infinite projection. The model's initial credibility stemmed from observed population doublings in shrinking intervals: 1 billion around 1800, 2 billion by 1925, 4 billion by 1975, and 8 billion in less than another 50 years. However, the underlying conditions that supported this hyperbolic growth began to change in the mid-1960s, particularly with declining fertility rates in developed countries and accelerating demographic transitions in developing nations.
