Democrat James Talarico Takes Lead Over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race, Poll Shows
A new poll conducted by SoCal Strategies on September 13, 2026, indicates that Democrat James Talarico has taken a 5-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, with Talarico polling at 50% to Paxton's 45%. This marks a significant shift from SoCal's June poll, which had Paxton leading by 2 points. The poll surveyed 649 likely voters between September 12-13. Talarico's lead is attributed to increased support among independents, with his lead growing from 10% to 45%, and his ability to attract 12% of Republican voters. He has also expanded his advantage with Hispanic voters, from 10% to 38%, and holds a 46% backing from voters aged 18-29. Paxton, conversely, has largely maintained his support among white voters. Other recent polls in September, including an AARP poll on September 10 and an N+ Univision poll on September 9, also show Talarico with a lead over Paxton, ranging from 4 to 5 points.
