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Weather. NHC warns tropical depression could form this week in Gulf

Weather. NHC warns tropical depression could form this week in Gulf

What does latest NHC forecast mean for Florida and Palm Beach County? Tropical depression or storm could develop this week as rainy week anticipated.

Palm Beach Post

Hurricane center watching area in the Gulf for possible development

Hurricane center watching area in the Gulf for possible development

Gulf waters are record warm and have already birthed three named storms this year, but El Niño wind shear may be too strong for a high-end storm.

Super El Niño Strengthens, Global Impacts Expected

Super El Niño Strengthens, Global Impacts Expected

A very strong El Niño event is currently developing, with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific reaching approximately 3.0°C (5.4°F) above normal as of mid-September 2026, according to the International Research Institute at Columbia University. NOAA has issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating a greater than 90% chance of the event persisting through the fall and winter of 2026-2027. This phenomenon, often referred to as a 'Super El Niño,' is expected to significantly alter global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in the Gulf States, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S., and warmer-than-average conditions in northern states. Historically, such events have also calmed the Atlantic hurricane season while intensifying activity in the Pacific.

Tropical System Likely to Form in Gulf of Mexico This Week

Tropical System Likely to Form in Gulf of Mexico This Week

A tropical depression or storm is highly likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. This potential system could mark a late-season development in the Atlantic hurricane season, which has been subdued due to the influence of El Niño. The Gulf's record-high water temperatures could fuel the system's formation, although atmospheric conditions may limit its strength. The storm, if it forms, will be named Isaias. Three scenarios are currently being considered: the system could dissipate before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast, it could fail to form but still bring heavy rain, or it could develop into Tropical Storm Isaias and make landfall, bringing strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

Atlantic Sees First No-Hurricane September in Decades

Atlantic Sees First No-Hurricane September in Decades

The Atlantic hurricane season has experienced an unusual milestone: the first September without a single hurricane in decades. Historically, September is considered the peak month for hurricane activity due to warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. On average, two to three hurricanes typically form during this month. However, this year, the Atlantic basin has remained quiet, with no hurricanes recorded. Experts attribute this anomaly to the influence of El Niño, which can suppress hurricane formation by increasing wind shear and altering atmospheric patterns. This marks a significant deviation from the average seasonal expectation of seven hurricanes, with five usually forming by this time of year. The last time hurricane activity was this low was in 1982 and 2013, which saw only two hurricanes each during the entire season. Source time: not specified.

The Corpus Christi Caller Times

A tropical storm may form in the Gulf. Will it affect Corpus Christi?

A tropical storm may form in the Gulf. Will it affect Corpus Christi?

A late-season tropical storm may form in the next few days. So what does that mean for Corpus Christi?

Gulf System May End 2026 Hurricane-Free Streak

Gulf System May End 2026 Hurricane-Free Streak

A developing weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has the potential to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which has been unusually quiet. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance of the system forming into a tropical depression or storm within the next two days, increasing to 70% over the next week. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Isaias. This system is forming over warm waters, with temperatures in the low to mid-80s °F (approximately 27–29 °C), providing favorable conditions for development. The Atlantic hurricane season typically sees an average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes by this point, but 2026 has only recorded eight named storms and no hurricanes so far. The season ends in November, leaving limited time for further activity.

October weather forecast calls for a 'notable cold shot' and frost

October weather forecast calls for a 'notable cold shot' and frost

The forecast predicts mild temps for many, above-average heat in the West — and a cold snap for some in early October.

Flood Risks Persist in Southern New Mexico

Flood Risks Persist in Southern New Mexico

Flooding continues to pose significant risks in southern New Mexico, with drivers reportedly crossing flooded roads on Monday. The National Weather Service has reiterated the dangers of entering floodwaters, emphasizing that a foot of rushing water can carry away cars, while two feet can sweep away larger vehicles like trucks and SUVs. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo remains active, with NOAA aircraft collecting data from its eye to improve forecasts and support hurricane research. Additionally, El Niño conditions have intensified, now classified as a super El Niño, contributing to rare precipitation in Chile's Atacama Desert, which has triggered a fleeting bloom of wildflowers. These developments highlight the interconnected impacts of global weather phenomena. Source time: Sun, 04 Oct 2026 12:54:00 GMT.

The Gulf Just Became a New Tropical Watch Zone

The Gulf Just Became a New Tropical Watch Zone

A new area to watch has emerged near the Bay of Campeche as the Atlantic hurricane season shows signs of activity in October. The system has a medium chance of development over the next seven days, with a broad area of low pressure potentially forming in the southwestern Gulf around Wednesday or Thursday. Even without tropical development, deep tropical moisture could bring several days of heavy rain to areas well beyond the Gulf Coast. Forecasters are closely watching the system’s movement, wind shear and the exceptionally warm Gulf waters as they assess potential impacts later this week and into the weekend.

Santa Barbara Faces 'Super El Niño' Reality Check

Santa Barbara Faces 'Super El Niño' Reality Check

Santa Barbara County is preparing for the impacts of a 'very strong' El Niño, officially classified by the National Weather Service with a 90% likelihood of persisting through the winter. While El Niño typically increases the chances of a wetter-than-normal winter in Southern California, meteorologist Todd Hall cautioned against overestimating its effects. Historical data shows that the strength of an El Niño does not always correlate with extreme weather outcomes. For instance, the 2015-16 'strong' El Niño resulted in below-average rainfall locally. Current forecasts suggest above-average precipitation later in the fall and into winter, but the overall risk of significant storms remains low. County agencies are taking proactive measures to prepare for potential flooding and other storm-related impacts.

30% Chance of Tropical Development in Gulf

30% Chance of Tropical Development in Gulf

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified a 30% chance of tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days, as of October 4, 2026. The area of interest is expected to form near the coast of Mexico, with no immediate threat of storm formation in the next 48 hours. Forecasters are closely monitoring the situation, as a stalled cold front across the northern Gulf Coast and North Florida could lead to the development of low-pressure systems in the coming week. Heavy rainfall is already impacting Florida, with flood watches in effect across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. This development comes during an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, which has yet to produce a hurricane as of October.