Japanese Government Projects Catastrophic Damage from Major Earthquakes in Nankai Trough and Greater Tokyo
The Japanese government has released updated damage projections for two potential major earthquake scenarios: a Nankai Trough earthquake and a massive earthquake directly beneath the Greater Tokyo area. For the Nankai Trough earthquake, which has a probability of over 90% within the next 30 years according to one model, a worst-case scenario striking late at night in winter could result in up to 298,000 fatalities. This projection assumes low tsunami evacuation rates, with over 200,000 deaths attributed to tsunamis. However, effective early evacuation could reduce tsunami-related deaths to around 90,000. The scenario also forecasts up to 950,000 injuries, 12.3 million evacuees, and 2.4 million destroyed buildings, leading to an estimated economic loss of ¥292 trillion, which is over 40% of Japan’s nominal GDP for fiscal 2025. For the Greater Tokyo area, where there is a 70% probability of a magnitude-7 earthquake within the next 30 years, a worst-case scenario involving a windy winter evening could lead to... 
