2026 Midterm Elections Expected to Maintain Closely Contested Congress
The 2026 midterm elections are anticipated to result in a closely contested Congress, with Democrats modestly favored to regain control of the House, while Republicans hold an edge in the Senate. A significant factor in this outlook is the wave of mid-decade redistricting across ten states, including Alabama, California, Florida, and Texas. Most of these changes involved partisan redraws designed to benefit one party, leading to a new House map described as 'more Republican and less elastic' by The Cook Political Report. This means fewer genuinely competitive seats, with only 38 out of 435 races considered competitive. Additionally, 70 House members are not seeking re-election, indicating a high level of frustration with congressional dysfunction and potentially leading to a significant number of new members in the next Congress. 
