Global Impacts Expected as El Niño Conditions Likely to Develop by Summer 2026
El Niño conditions are anticipated to return in the coming months, with an 80% likelihood of forming between June and August 2026 and a 90% chance before November, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This weather phenomenon, characterized by warming Pacific Ocean waters, is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which significantly influences global weather patterns. The WMO forecasts widespread impacts, including above-average temperatures across most regions and shifts in rainfall patterns. Wetter conditions are expected in the southern United States, southern South America, and parts of Africa and Asia, while drier conditions are likely in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, and parts of southern Asia. The event may also suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing cyclone potential in the Pacific. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called this an urgent climate warning, emphasizing the need for global climate action.