October Inflation Report Fuels Speculation of Federal Reserve 'Jumbo' Rate Hike
The October inflation report, showing a 0.4% rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 0.3% increase in core inflation, has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month. Both figures exceeded economists' forecasts, with the CPI slightly cooling from September's 0.6% but core inflation remaining unchanged. The Labor Department did not provide a 12-month inflation rate for October due to a government shutdown in October 2025, which prevented data collection for that period. Economists like Thomas Ryan of Capital Economics suggest the broad-based nature of the inflation, rather than one-off factors, makes a December hike almost certain, with an increased risk of a larger 50 basis point move instead of the typical 25 basis points.