Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 is currently in a tricky situation. Afghanistan, who started their campaign with a win over Hong Kong, are now in a do-or-die
situation after suffering a narrow defeat against Bangladesh. Their final group-stage contest against Sri Lanka on Thursday, September 18, in Abu Dhabi will decide not only their fate but also the destiny of Bangladesh.
Afghanistan against Hong Kong produced a clinical performance, winning by a massive 94-run margin. That win gave them two points and a massive boost to their net run rate (NRR), which now stands at positive 2.150. However, in their second fixture against Bangladesh, chasing 155, the Rashid Khan-led team showed moments of brilliance. Azmatullah Omarzai’s 30 gave them some home, but Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed’s death bowling restricted the team to 146, handing the Litton Das-led team an eight-run win.
That loss left Afghanistan with two points from two matches, making their final clash against Sri Lanka a must-win. On the other hand, Bangladesh has finished all three of its games, winning two and losing one. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is already out, with the fight being between Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh for two Super Four spots.
Qualification scenarios
Scenario 1: If Sri Lanka wins
If Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan by any margin, the former will finish with six points and top the group, while Bangladesh will qualify as the second team with four points despite their poor NRR. With that, Afghanistan will be eliminated with just two points.
Scenario 2: Afghanistan wins
If Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka, the group will see a three-way tie with all three teams finishing on four points. In that case, net run rate becomes the deciding factor. Afghanistan, with the best NRR already, any margin of victory will strengthen its position, and a win guarantees its passage to the Super Four.
Notably, Sri Lanka, despite a loss, their healthy NRR puts them on the brink of qualifying unless the defeat is massive. If Afghanistan wins by 70+ runs, or chases down the target with 50+ balls to spare, Sri Lanka’s NRR could dip below Bangladesh’s, leading to their elimination.
Furthermore, Bangladesh is in the weakest position. For them to advance, Afghanistan must not only beat Sri Lanka but do so by a huge margin. Only then can Sri Lanka’s NRR fall below negative 0.270, leading to Bangladesh sneaking into the Super Four.
