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What is the story about?
Gold has rallied sharply since last Dhanteras, with prices rising from around ₹78,840 per 10 grams ($2,769/oz) on October 29, 2024, to approximately ₹1.28 lakh ($4,254/oz) ahead of the upcoming festive season — a gain of around 63% in rupee terms and 53% in dollar terms.
According to estimates shared by Ventura Securities, gold has been supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, including expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, continued central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions such as renewed trade frictions between the US and China.
Ventura notes that gold has logged eight consecutive weekly gains, with investors showing strong buying interest even during minor price corrections. Exchange-traded fund inflows and central bank accumulation have further aided the rally.
Festive demand in India
Last Dhanteras saw an estimated 25–30 tonnes of gold sales. While volume was lower due to high prices, overall sales value was up by 12–18% as consumers shifted towards lightweight jewellery and smaller denomination gold coins.
Jewellery demand in India fell 17% year-on-year in Q2 2025, though investment-led purchases reportedly increased during the same period.
Price outlook
For Dhanteras 2025, Ventura projects key resistance levels at ₹1.30 lakh–₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams, while support is seen around ₹1.21 lakh per 10 grams ($4,000 an ounce).
A breakdown below ₹1.20 lakh per 10 grams ($3,980 per ounce) may trigger weakness.
However, the brokerage sees potential for the next leg of the rally to begin post the festive season, with prices possibly hitting uncharted territory of ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams or $5,000 per ounce by 2026 if current tailwinds persist.
According to estimates shared by Ventura Securities, gold has been supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, including expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, continued central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions such as renewed trade frictions between the US and China.
Ventura notes that gold has logged eight consecutive weekly gains, with investors showing strong buying interest even during minor price corrections. Exchange-traded fund inflows and central bank accumulation have further aided the rally.
Festive demand in India
Last Dhanteras saw an estimated 25–30 tonnes of gold sales. While volume was lower due to high prices, overall sales value was up by 12–18% as consumers shifted towards lightweight jewellery and smaller denomination gold coins.
Jewellery demand in India fell 17% year-on-year in Q2 2025, though investment-led purchases reportedly increased during the same period.
Price outlook
For Dhanteras 2025, Ventura projects key resistance levels at ₹1.30 lakh–₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams, while support is seen around ₹1.21 lakh per 10 grams ($4,000 an ounce).
A breakdown below ₹1.20 lakh per 10 grams ($3,980 per ounce) may trigger weakness.
However, the brokerage sees potential for the next leg of the rally to begin post the festive season, with prices possibly hitting uncharted territory of ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams or $5,000 per ounce by 2026 if current tailwinds persist.
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