Motilal Oswal expects gold to reach $4,500 an ounce, silver $75 an ounce over medium to long term

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects gold prices to climb to $4,250–$4,500 an ounce on COMEX and ₹1.28 lakh –₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams domestically, while silver could rise to $75 an ounce on COMEX and ₹2.30 lakh per 10 grams in India over the medium to long term, if current momentum continues.

The forecasts follow gold crossing $4,000 an ounce and silver gaining more than 60% year-to-date, marking one of the steepest rallies in recent decades.

“While short-term corrections may occur, gold and silver are supported by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and structural demand from Asia,” said Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodities & Currencies, Motilal Oswal.

Asia leads demand for precious metals

The rally differs from previous bull runs, which were often driven by Western crises. Asia is now at the center of global bullion demand, with China, India, Turkey, and Middle Eastern nations accumulating gold and silver as safe-haven and reserve assets. Key indicators include:

• Central bank purchases: +600 tonnes (Jan–Sep 2025)


• Global Gold ETF inflows: +450 tonnes — strongest since 2020


• India imports: 300 tonnes of gold, 3,000 tonnes of silver by Q3 2025

“Central bank diversification is redefining the bullion market, aligning institutional and sovereign demand with long-term value creation,” said Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities & Currencies.

Macro drivers support prices

The surge in precious metals is underpinned by several macro factors:

• Dollar index below 100 and strengthening rupee


• Anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts amid soft labor data


• Political uncertainty in Japan and China’s push to become a global gold custodian


• Investors have rotated capital from bonds and riskier assets into gold and silver, reinforcing the bullish trend.

Supply constraints and structural demand

Gold supply remains tight due to declining ore grades, rising costs, and environmental regulations, while recycling growth is modest. Silver is benefiting from industrial-led demand in solar, EV, and AI sectors, and faces a fifth consecutive year of global supply deficit.

The gold–silver ratio, which peaked near 110 earlier this year, has narrowed to 81–82, reflecting renewed industrial-driven buying.

Seasonal strength ahead of Diwali

Domestic demand in India continues to show resilience despite all-time high prices. Historical trends indicate gold prices rise in seven of the past ten Diwali seasons, with pre-festival gains often outpacing post-festival trends. Cultural sentiment combined with investor optimism continues to bolster the market.