October F&O series begins with FII long exposure the lowest on record

Indian equities head into the October F&O series after a forgettable September, where the Nifty 50 index gave up most of the 1,000-point rally it had witnessed during the first half of the series.

After negative returns in the last two series, the Nifty ended the September series with gains of 110 points.

F&O Series	Returns (Points)
September 2025	110
August 2025	-267
July 2025	-781
June 2025	715
May 2025	587

Historically, October has been a mixed bag for the Nifty. 2024 could be an outlier, as the index had corrected over 2,000 points, following a record high of 26,277 on September 27. The index has not retested those levels since then.

October Series Year	Returns (Points)	Returns (%)
2021	239	1.4
2022	919	5.5
2023	-666	-3.4
2024	-2,011	-7.7

The FII net long positioning at the start of the September series was at record lows. It is even lower at the start of the October series as foreign institutions continue to build fresh shorts into the market, despite the fall seen from higher levels.

Month	FII Longs In Futures
October	6%
September	8%
August	10%
July	38%
June	20%
May	41%

At the start of the October series, Rollovers are again above the 80% mark, nearly at par with September and higher than the June-August period.

Series	Rollovers
October	82.6%
September	83.6%
August	75.7%
July	79.5%
June	79.1%
May	79.1%

Open interest at the start of the October series is higher than the last four months as well.

Month	Nifty Open Interest (Shares)
October	1.71 Crore
September	1.6 Crore
August	1.55 Crore
July	1.5 Crore
June	1.26 Crore

FIIs are currently net short at 1.76 lakh contracts. Long exposure for clients though, stands at 74% or 1.25 lakh contracts.

The RBI policy outcome today, the business updates for the September quarter, developments around the US-India trade talks and festive season sales will be some of the important triggers to watch out for in this October series.