H-1B Visa Fees News — Analysts highlight which companies will have the highest impact

Indian IT stocks, from largecap IT to Midcap IT names will be in focus on Monday, September 22, after the Donald Trump administration announced new rules for the H-1B visa, which sent the US-listed shares of Infoys and Wipro down during Friday's trade.

Although the White House has issued a series of clarifications and multiple midcap IT stocks from Persistent to Coforge and Mphasis have reiterated that it will be business as usual for them, the impact could be seen on largecap IT names like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and peers.

BofA Securities

BofA Securities believes that the new H-1B visa fees norms pose a gross pre-mitigation Earnings Per Share (EPS) risk of 7% to 17% over a three-year period.

Companies now have a clear 12 months to plan and kick-in mitigations like offshoring and near-shoring, the risks can completely nullify the impact and risks over the next three to five years, BofA Securities said, adding that Tech Mahindra is the most exposed among these names.

Jefferies

Jefferies wrote in its note that the move will entirely offset the EBIT per H-1B employee and drive a shift away from the usage of the visa and trigger a move towards local hiring, subcontracting and near / offshoring.

The brokerage expects a talent supply crunch to drive up onsite wages, which could drag profits by 4% to 13%, adding that growth may also slow amidst operating model shifts, macro pressures and AI risk.

Among the largecap stocks, Jefferies sees TCS and Infosys to be well placed, while Coforge is best placed among the midcap names.

CLSA

CLSA believes that the issue will have limited impact as it will be applicable only for new applications and not for renewals or on the overall stock of visas.

It expects up to a 6% it to financial year 2027 for Indian IT companies under their coverage, assuming that all the burden is shared by them and not passed o clients.

The brokerage expects LTIMindtree and Persistent Systems to have the highest impact, while TCS is likely to have the lowest impact.

Nomura

Nomura believes that in a worst case scenario, it expects an impact between 10 basis points to 100 basis points on the company's margins for the entire coverage universe.

It added that any sharp correction would be an accumulation opportunity and that Infosys and Cognizant among the largecaps are its top picks, while Coforge and Firstsource are among the top midcap picks.