Bharat Forge may have won a major order, but Morgan Stanley sees two major headwinds

Shares of Bharat Forge Ltd. can decline 19% from current levels, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley wrote on Friday, October 24, just a day after the company announced a large order win.

Morgan Stanley has an "equal weight" rating on the stock with a price target of ₹1,050 per share. The stock ended at ₹1,300.1 on Thursday.

In response to reports, Bharat Forge, in an exchange filing on Thursday, stated that it was selected as the L1 bidder for the supply of 60% of the 4.25 lakh CQB Carbines. Bharat Forge had submitted bids for the program in March 2023.

The company said further that the contract finalization process is underway with the Ministry of Defence, and the contract is not signed as on date.

At the end of June, Bharat Forge's defence orderbook stood at ₹9,460 crore. With the addition of this order from the Indian Army, the order book will rise to ₹10,860 crore, Morgan Stanley said.

The brokerage expects the defence business' contribution to the overall topline to rise to 18% by financial year 2027, compared to 12% last year.

Morgan Stanley noted that weakness in the US Class 8 truck demand, and tariffs within this sector remain the key headwinds for Bharat Forge.

Shares of Bharat Forge are trading 0.6% higher on Friday at ₹1,307.5. The stock is up 8% in the last one month and as a result

of this move, the stock has also turned positive on a year-to-date basis.

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