Trade Setup for October 15: Nifty holding on to 25,150 will give bulls hope ahead of key results

On the weekly expiry day, the Nifty 50 started on a positive note, led by positive global cues, but quickly lost momentum after failing to surpass last week's high. Selling pressure emerged early, with the index slipping below the previous two sessions' lows.

Expiry-related unwinding intensified in the first half, dragging Nifty to an intraday low of 25,060, a sharp 250-point fall from the morning high of 25,310.

Post noon, the index attempted a mild recovery but failed to regain much ground, eventually closing 0.32% lower at 25,145.

The day's trade was marked by volatility as the index oscillated between 25,300 on the upside and 25,100 on the downside. While Nifty faced resistance near 25,300, it found support around its 21-day moving average at 25,060 before closing just above the 25,100 mark.

Among the Nifty constituents, Max Healthcare, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro displayed strength, managing to end as the major gainers. Conversely, the selling was intense in Dr. Reddy's, Tata Steel, and Bajaj Finance, which registered the steepest losses.

The selling was broad-based, with all sectoral indices closing in the red. The steepest declines were witnessed in the Nifty PSU Banks, Consumer Durables, Media, and Metal indices.

Weakness was more pronounced in the broader market as both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices closed on a weak note.

Data centre-related stocks were in focus after Google announced a $15 billion investment over five years to establish an AI data centre in Andhra Pradesh — its largest-ever commitment in India.

On the macro front, India's retail inflation (CPI) eased to an over eight-year low of 1.54% in September, compared with 2.05% in August, fuelling expectations of a potential rate cut by the RBI in its upcoming policy review.

Meanwhile, optimism over India-US trade discussions resurfaced as New Delhi is set to hold talks with Washington this week and has reportedly agreed to boost imports of US energy and gas to address concerns over Russian oil purchases.

Overall, market are expected to remain range-bound, with global trends, FII flows, and Q2FY26 earnings likely to guide near-term direction, believes Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.

Key results due Wednesday include Axis Bank, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, L&T Finance, HDB Financial, and Angel One.

Analysts maintain that the Nifty's primary uptrend remains intact as the index continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (DEMA).

According to Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities, the index has immediate support in the 25,000-25,050 zone, while 25,310 and 25,400 will act as key near-term resistance levels.

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One said that a sustained move below the 25,050-25,000 support band could invite further weakness. On the upside, he expects the 25,300-25,350 zone to pose a stiff hurdle, with a breakout above it likely to reignite bullish momentum.

He added that with the festive season approaching, the market may remain range-bound in a holiday mood.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking also believes Nifty is consolidating between 25,000 and 25,300, and that a decisive close above 25,300 would be needed to trigger the next leg of the rally.

Meanwhile, Rupak De of LKP Securities pointed out that call writers were active at the 25,300 strike, pressuring the index below 25,100. The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern and a lower-top formation, signaling short-term weakness. He expects immediate support at 25,000, with resistance seen around 25,200-25,300.