RANCHO PALOS VERDES, Calif. (AP) — As momentum builds behind the Big Ten’s idea of doubling the College Football Playoff to 24 teams, one critical question remains: Who wants to televise it?
Fox has indicated it likes the 24-team idea, but embedded within that equation is the critical calculation of how much that network, or any broadcast partner, would pay for a new set of games involving second-tier teams that might not garner the same TV ratings
as some of the biggest programs in the sport.
“The answer is ‘less,’ but not nothing,'" said Ed Desser, a former NBA executive and media rights expert who co-authored a paper about the value of college football on TV with former ESPN executive John Kosner. “There will be perceived value. It becomes a question of, on the margin, can you create good, meaningful games that enhance the value of the playoff? Or are you just kind of making people wait longer for the entree, for the game they really want?”
The CFP deal that starts this season with ESPN is worth $7.8 billion over six seasons. That network would have first dibs on the first two games added to any package. The rest are up for grabs.
“I want to see whoever is committed to making it work,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said this week when asked which TV partner he'd like to see jump in. “I think it's about whoever has the commitment to scheduling it right and who's going to bring the right resources.”
Figuring the size of the playoff is a puzzle that continues to confound the sport. On one side is the Southeastern Conference, which has held steady to the idea of not expanding past 16 teams though commissioner Greg Sankey teased that some might come around to 24 at meetings next week.
On the other is the Big Ten, which now also has backing from the Atlantic Coast and Big 12 conferences for a move to 24.
The SEC’s idea would more or less keep the overall schedule where it is, including preserving the conference championship games that Petitti estimated to be worth a combined $200 million to the four power conferences.
Sankey has said the league has contracts for its title game and it has to honor those contracts; Petitti didn't seem as tied to the title games, saying he thought the Big Ten could “undo our championship games” as soon as the 2027 season if needed.
A 24-team playoff would eliminate automatic qualifiers and render conference title games virtually meaningless. According to many in the Big Ten, they would give all programs what they crave — more access to the playoff, and a reason for fans and boosters to keep bankrolling all those player salaries.
“I think if we went to 24 teams, there might be 24 teams that could win the national championship,” said Illinois coach Bret Bielema, who is on the board of the American Football Coaches Association that also recently voiced support for the expanded field. “I don’t know if that was true 10 years ago.”
There is still the issue of paying for it.
While popular, college football only captures a fraction of the viewers as the NFL.
The 30.1 million who tuned into last season’s college final between Indiana and Miami would have ranked fifth on the NFL’s list of most-watched regular-season offerings. The Super Bowl drew more than 125 million viewers.
For the weeks when the CFP goes against NFL regular-season games – first-round contests the past two years have taken place opposite NFL games on Saturdays – the NFL games have drawn between 2.5 times and 5 times the viewers. Part of this is because the NFL games are over-the-air on Fox and the college games were on cable, TNT/TBS/TruTv.
There is also the issue of how much networks or streamers will have to spend.
The NFL's recent move into streaming and adding new broadcast windows — for example, Christmas Day and the days before and after Thanksgiving — has led to thoughts that the league will press for sooner renegotiations of its own deals that currently have an opt-out clause in 2029.
While the league controls all its games, college football's rights are spread out among the individual conferences and the CFP.
“We don’t feel that the current Balkanized state of college football lends itself to maximizing (revenue) across the board,” Kosner said. “Nor do I think that just doubling the CFP at this stage is going to be such a revenue motherlode that it's going to make a difference."
Pettiti views filling the gaps from the lost title-game revenue differently. He sees an influx of on-campus games, which generate $6 million or more in ticket sales and other receipts, as part of the equation.
The SEC, once seemingly in the majority in seeking a move to 16 teams, is now in the minority. Sankey said the league will have to do its own research to see how a bigger expansion would impact the college football calendar, the title games and, of course, the financial bottom line.
“I think there's going to be a lot of pressure on the commissioners to help make it happen," Kosner said. "I would kind of be surprised if, within two years, it hasn’t happened. But I’d also be surprised if it winds up being the sort of business boom that they might hope that it would be.”
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
