AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Democrats' process for picking a 2028 presidential nominee will likely kick off in states where candidates will need to appeal to key supporters such as Black and Latino voters and union members.
It also may require fewer parkas for the winters in Iowa, which is out of the top spot of the proposed calendar, and learning to pronounce Nevada the way the locals do (it's Ne-VAD-ah).
The Democratic National Committee is scheduled to
approve the calendar Saturday at a meeting in Texas.
South Carolina’s primary would be first on Jan. 22, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia would round out the early states, throughout February.
“It shouldn’t surprise anyone as a result of it being the largest and most diverse committee that we got the most diverse calendar in our party’s history,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin, who has championed the calendar, told a gathering of the party’s Black Caucus this week.
Democrats' 2028 presidential primary is expected to draw a large group of candidates. Already, some potential candidates have been making stops in states expected to vote early, such as South Carolina. Party leaders have widely praised the plan as giving its candidates the best shot at replacing President Donald Trump.
“They have to show that they can go to the South and talk to Black voters and rural voters, as well as out west, talking ranching and mining issues, to a border state, to union members,” said party strategist Karen Finney, who has worked on multiple winning and losing presidential campaigns. “Whoever survives will be battle tested.”
Former presidential candidate Howard Dean recalled his time as national party chairman, when Democrats solidified Nevada and South Carolina as early states behind Iowa and New Hampshire. The latest change is even better, he said.
“These states look more like the country,” as a whole, he said, “whereas Iowa and New Hampshire don’t.”
As the first-in-the-South primary, South Carolina was more decisive than Iowa and New Hampshire for nominees Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. All three dominated among South Carolina’s large Black population, which can yield more than half the state’s Democratic primary electorate.
With Nevada and New Mexico following, that will likely require that candidates also court more Latino voters long before voting starts.
Shifting from Iowa and New Hampshire does not mean little-known candidates can't catch fire like Pete Buttigieg did in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, when he was a 37-year-old former mayor. They just won’t be able to do it with an almost entirely white audience.
“If you can’t go to every part of this country and make your case, you should not be running for president,” Finney said.
There’s disagreement over how Democrats’ split between progressives and mainstream liberals may — or may not — surface in the calendar.
“I think our primary voters up north are probably a little different than primary voters in South Carolina,” said Boyd Brown, a former DNC member from South Carolina. “It’s not the woke ideologies that we just can’t get away from” in other places.
Nina Smith, a former Buttigieg adviser who now works closely with progressive causes, disagreed. Smith agreed that Black South Carolinians, especially, have gravitated to more moderate candidates — twice rejecting Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in favor of Clinton and Biden.
But, she said, “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for” on policy but also “realists” about what’s possible.
“Living through Jim Crow and other oppressive structures will force you to take that approach,” she said.
Smith said that South Carolina leading off — with many Southern states following on Super Tuesday soon after the early slate concludes — means that progressives will have to take the time to listen and then tailor their messages.
“A lot of Black voters don’t necessarily see themselves in the ideas and arguments that progressives put forward,” she said.
The slate covers three major organized labor buckets.
Nevada has the service industry unions because of Las Vegas; Michigan has the auto industry and associated manufacturing support industries; Virginia is home to more federal workers than any other state.
“Labor is still so important,” Dean said.
Beyond seeking members' votes, campaigns and the party look to organized labor for help in spreading Democrats' message to voters and getting people to the polls.
Campaigns struggle to balance many demands: meeting voters on the ground, raising money and travel logistics. As a result, some places, such as Nevada, have gotten short shrift in the past because candidates, most from the eastern half of the country, have concluded the time investment isn’t worth it.
An expanded calendar offers more clustering opportunities.
A Western swing could hit two early states — Nevada and New Mexico — plus a fundraising stop in California, which is rich with Democratic donors. A South Carolina trip could mean fundraisers and public appearances in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. Virginia offers proximity to donors and national TV studios in Washington; the same options are available by adding a New York City stop on the way to New Hampshire.
Bre Maxwell is a DNC member from South Carolina who said the state’s smaller size and lower media costs are a financial equalizer, allowing not only the best-funded candidates to have an impact.
“They can campaign from the top to the bottom in a day,” Maxwell said.
Of the six states, all but South Carolina are competitive general election states. That means that even before Super Tuesday, Democrats — including the eventual nominee — will have spent significant time and resources in battlegrounds worth a combined 43 Electoral College votes. That’s not insignificant on the way to the 270 needed to win.
TV ads and news coverage can spill over, as well. Markets targeting parts of South Carolina also reach portions of North Carolina and Georgia.
After all, Brown said, the point is to put a Democrat in the White House.
“This is not a social or a debate club. It is a political party,” he said.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta. Associated Press reporter Meg Kinnard in Columbia, South Carolina, also contributed.
