NEW YORK (AP) — A key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports.
They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S. war with Iran. Inflation
is stubbornly high, consumers are losing confidence and the resilient jobs market is showing more signs of stress.
Here’s a look at some of the key reports coming in the week ahead.
Americans are losing confidence in the economy as rising prices for everything from gas to groceries guts budgets. The latest consumer confidence survey from business group The Conference Board on Tuesday is expected to show that consumer confidence kept shrinking in October.
The last report showed that confidence plunged in September to the lowest level in more than a decade. The October report is expected to show confidence kept weakening. Consumer confidence is down sharply from two years ago, according to the survey. In that time, the U.S. has waged a wide-ranging trade war with much of the world, including its neighbors and closest trading partners. The uncertainty around the sudden shifts in tariffs left businesses and consumers wary about planning ahead over worries about higher costs. The U.S. war with Iran that started in 2026 slashed global oil supplies and added more fuel to rising prices.
The Federal Reserve will close out a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady following a hike at its September meeting. The central bank has been signaling that it is still worried about inflation and that it may have to continue raising rates to help tame rising costs. Wall Street still expects that one more rate hike is coming at the Fed's meeting in December.
Higher interest rates make borrowing more costly, which in turn can slow economic growth and cool stubbornly hot inflation. The Fed has to balance taming inflation with supporting the jobs market. Higher interest rates and slower economic growth could dampen rising inflation, but they could also hurt job growth at a time when the somewhat resilient employment market is showing signs of stress.
The U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday will release its initial report on economic growth during the third quarter and economists expect a sluggish result. Economists are forecasting that gross domestic product, which is the nation's output of goods and services, rose 1.7% from July through September. It's the first of three reports for third-quarter GDP and can be revised higher or lower.
The forecast for the initial assessment marks an easing from 2.2% growth during the second quarter. GDP growth has been slowing since the first quarter under pressure from higher oil prices fueling already stubbornly high inflation. Growth has been bolstered by a strong stock market and businesses investing in artificial intelligence technology. Households, though, have been struggling with higher costs on everything from gas to groceries eating up more of their budgets at the same time that average wages for workers stagnate.
The latest inflation update is expected to show that prices on everything from gasoline to clothing and groceries marched higher at a faster rate in September. The U.S. will release the personal consumption expenditures report, or PCE, on Thursday and economists expect that inflation jumped at a 3.7% rate, up from a 3.4% rate in August.
The PCE is the preferred measure of inflation used by the Fed, which wants to bring inflation down to its target rate of 2%. Several other measures of inflation have also moved stubbornly above a 3%. Inflation has been rising at an even sharper rate since the U.S. war with Iran started in February, essentially shutting down the vital Strait of Hormuz and stifling the global oil supply. That has prompted a surge in gasoline prices that have been a direct hit to household budgets. Higher diesel fuel costs raised the cost of shipping and warehousing goods, which businesses typically pass along to consumers.
The latest updates on retail sales show that household spending remains strong, on the surface. Much of that spending, though, is the result of paying higher costs, especially for gasoline.
Investors have another busy week of earnings ahead, with reports from big names that could provide more insight on plans for AI spending and how inflation is influencing profits.
The most closely-watched reports this week are likely to be the big technology or technology-related companies that have seen their stock values surge as they heavily invest in artificial-intelligence technology with hopes for a big benefit. Google's parent company Alphabet reports its results on Wednesday, with Intel and Amazon reporting their latest results on Thursday. Analysts expect all three companies to report profit gains as Wall Street tries to determine whether their big AI investments will translate into future growth and whether their outsized stock values are justified.
A wide range of other companies will report results this week, shedding more light on inflation's impact across industries. Shipping company UPS and beverage giant Coca-Cola report results on Tuesday. Starbucks reports its results on Thursday, while oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron report their results on Friday.
