NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are ticking toward another record on Tuesday. The latest discouraging signal on the job market is helping Wall Street's hopes for a slowdown that's deep enough to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but not so overwhelming that it causes a recession.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and is on track to squeak past its all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 181 points, or 0.4%, with a little less than an hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq
composite was adding 0.2% to its own record set the day before.
Traders have become convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year at its next meeting in a week to prop up the slowing job market. A report Tuesday offered the latest signal of weakness, as the U.S. government said its prior count of jobs across the country through March may have been too high by 911,000, or 0.6%.
That was before President Donald Trump shocked the economy and financial markets in April by rolling out tariffs on countries worldwide.
The bet on Wall Street is that such data will convince Fed officials that the job market is now the bigger problem for the economy than the threat of inflation worsening because of Trump’s tariffs. That would push them to cut the Fed's main interest rate, a move that would give the economy a boost but could also send inflation higher.
A lot is riding on Wall Street's hope that the job market is slowing by just the right amount: Investors have already sent U.S. stock prices to records because of it. Inflation also needs to stay at a reasonable level, even though it looks tough to get below the Fed’s target of 2%.
Tuesday's job-growth revisions still have traders unanimously expecting a rate cut next week, but they pared back forecasts for a deeper-than-usual reduction. That caused a slight recovery for Treasury yields following their sharp recent slide.
“The more likely course is for the Fed to deliver an October and December cut rather than trying to deliver a catchup cut in September,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
Coming reports on inflation due on Wednesday and Thursday could alter expectations further. Hotter-than-expected readings could put the Fed in a worst-case scenario and make a series of cuts to rates less palatable.
On Wall Street, UnitedHealth Group climbed 7.9% after saying its executives plan to tell investors and analysts that it’s sticking with its profit forecast for 2025. That helped it trim its loss for the year so far, which came into the day at 36.7%, as insurers across the industry have contended with soaring medical costs.
Nebius Group, a Dutch company working in artificial-intelligence infrastructure, saw its stock that trades in the United States soar 50.8% after it announced a contract to deliver GPU services to Microsoft. The contract could be worth between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, and it runs through 2031. Microsoft's stock was flat.
Fox dropped 5.5% after Rupert Murdoch’s family said they’ve reached a deal on control of the 94-year-old mogul’s media empire after his death. The agreement ensures that there will be no change in direction at Fox News, the most popular network for President Donald Trump and conservatives.
The deal creates a trust establishing control of the Fox Corp. for Lachlan Murdoch, Rupert’s chosen heir who has been running Fox in recent years, along with his younger sisters, Grace and Chloe.
Apple slipped 0.6% after unveiling its next generation of iPhones.
In stock markets abroad, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2% as the market remained relatively calm even though its government is facing a crisis of confidence after legislators voted to oust another prime minister. It and other governments around the world, including the United States, are facing increased scrutiny on how they plan to pay for their spending.
Indexes were mixed across the rest of Europe and in Asia.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 erased early gains to finish 0.4% lower as political uncertainty continued after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said over the weekend that he planned to step down. Who will replace him is still uncertain and may take weeks to decide.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.07% from 4.05% late Monday.
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AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.
