ISLAMABAD (AP) — Iran and the United States are trumpeting their tentative agreement aimed at ending their war as a victory. But so far there is no word on what’s actually in it.
The Memorandum of Understanding, brokered mainly by Pakistan, starts with the simultaneous lifting of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports, according to Pakistani officials. The two sides will then enter 60 days of negotiations over
Iran’s nuclear program and the potential lifting of sanctions, they told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because the text is being kept confidential.
That would leave the adversaries more or less where they where they were 3 ½ months ago — before Israel and the U.S. on Feb. 28 launched their war on Iran, which has left thousands dead across the region, triggered a global energy crisis and shook the American economy with an inflation surge.
Much remains unknown, including whether the deal says anything about Iran’s missile program or support for its regional allies like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, two issues that the U.S. and Israel cited to justify the war. Another major question is how it addresses Lebanon: Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the deal, and their fighting could blow up the arrangement.
Here’s what to know:
Once the deal is signed — expected on Friday — the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the U.S. will lift its blockade, U.S. President Donald Trump said. The announcement triggered a drop in oil prices and a surge in stock markets. Trump said Iran would not charge a toll for passage of ships — a demand made by Tehran — suggesting that the deal restores the prewar status quo.
Iran’s closure on the strait, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies must pass to reach markets, proved perhaps its strongest weapon. It drove up fuel prices, made food and other basics like fertilizer more expensive well beyond the region and helped push inflation in the U.S. up to 4% ahead of midterm elections later this year.
The U.S. blockade, imposed after an initial ceasefire was reached on April 7, cut off the billions it earned from oil exports and further crippled an economy that was hit hard by the war.
The 60-day period of negotiations can be extended if there is progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday. What is not known is whether the new agreement puts the two sides any closer than they were in negotiations months ago, when the U.S. and Israel launched their surprise attack on Iran.
The U.S. and Israel fear Iran’s nuclear program could lead to an atomic weapon, a main reason their leaders cited for going to war. Tehran has insisted its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes.
Central to U.S. demands is the removal or dilution of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. Iran in the past resisted U.S. terms over the stockpile, and a major question will be whether the text of the deal explicitly commits Iran to getting rid of it. Iran developed the stockpile after Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled out of the 2015 deal that had put limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions and unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, moves vital to resuscitating its economy. The Pakistani officials said the memorandum of understanding outlines a phased process for easing sanctions and releasing frozen assets, tied to progress in the talks.
The Trump administration has said its aims in the war were to “obliterate” Iran missile arsenal and “sever its support” for proxies around the region, as well “annihilate its navy” and ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.
The seven weeks of U.S.-Israeli bombardment are believed to have heavily damaged Iran’s missile arsenal and production facilities as well as other parts of its military. How heavily is not known, and Iran has continued to fire missiles and carry out drone strikes. Few analysts think Iran cannot rebuild its capabilities.
Iran’s ties with its allies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq — appear strong as ever. There has been no indication that the Memorandum of Understand addresses either the missile program or support for proxies, though a final text when it emerges could show otherwise.
The air campaign also inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s economy. Nevertheless, Iran’s leadership has emerged from the war seemingly bolder.
It survived the most serious attempt ever by Israel and the United States to topple the Islamic Republic, with their thundering opening volleys of the war that killed Iran’s supreme leader and much of the top political and military echelons.
Iran demonstrated its ability to retaliate against the global economy by shutting down the strait and by hitting U.S. Arab allies in the Gulf. The effectiveness of that weapon boosted Iran’s confidence that Trump won’t return to the military option.
The potential obstacle to the agreement is Lebanon, where any spiral in the conflict has the potential to drag in Iran.
Iran has insisted that any deal must also include a ceasefire in Lebanon. After the deal was announced, the first Israeli response came from its defense minister, Israel Katz, who said Israel won’t withdraw from the large swath of southern Lebanon seized over the past months.
Hezbollah in a statement Monday praised the deal and said it was committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted of unprecedented “shoulder to shoulder” cooperation with the U.S. at the outset of the war, launched in a joint operation between the two close allies.
But since then, Trump and Netanyahu have been at odds — with the president eager to end a war that is deeply unpopular with the American public and Netanyahu wanting to press ahead to realize his more ambitious goals.
Netanyahu was largely sidelined during the ceasefire talks and appears to have lost support among members of the Republican Party. The emerging ceasefire has also come under heavy criticism in Israel, both from opposition leaders and even members of his governing coalition.
That could bode poorly for the veteran Israeli leader, who faces reelection this fall.
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Keath reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Will Weissert in Washington contributed to this report.
