Carolina (5-5) at Atlanta (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, Fox
BetMGM NFL Odds: Falcons by 3 1/2.
Against the spread: Panthers 6-4; Falcons 4-4-1
Series record: Falcons lead 37-24.
Last meeting: Panthers beat Falcons
30-0 at Carolina on Sept. 21.
Last week: Panthers lost to Saints 17-7; Falcons lost to Indianapolis in Berlin 31-25 in OT.
Panthers offense: overall (27), rush (8), pass (30), scoring (28).
Panthers defense: overall (16), rush (17), pass (15), scoring (12).
Falcons offense: overall (16), rush (15), pass (16), scoring (27).
Falcons defense: overall (10), rush (29), pass (1), scoring (16).
Turnover differential: Panthers minus-5; Falcons plus-5
RB Rico Dowdle. The former Dallas Cowboys back has been the focal point of Carolina’s run-first offense, having gained 705 yards on the ground and four touchdowns over the last six games. He’s on pace for his second straight 1,000-yard season. The team still has Chuba Hubbard, but Dowdle has outplayed Hubbard since his return from a quad injury and now is getting the majority of reps in the backfield. Dowdle is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and also has 142 yards receiving and a TD through the air.
RB Bijan Robinson has been held under 50 rushing yards in three of the last four games and hasn't reached 100 yards since having 19 carries for 170 yards on Oct. 13 against Buffalo. As quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons look for ways to have more success on third downs, establishing Robinson's running game is a key. Robinson has had 15 or more carries in only four of nine games. He had 13 carries for 72 yards in the blowout loss to the Panthers in Week 3 when the Falcons were forced to abandon their preferred run-pass ratio.
Dowdle and Hubbard vs. the Falcons run defense. Atlanta ranks 29th against the run after giving up 244 rushing yards to the Colts' Jonathan Taylor last week, the most rushing yards allowed to a player in franchise history. Dowdle ranks third in the league with 788 yards. He had 10 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown in Carolina's blowout win over Atlanta early in the season. Atlanta's improved pass rush has come at the expense of its success against the run, and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich says adjustments are being considered.
Panthers: The Panthers are expected to be without linebacker Trevin Wallace (shoulder) this week, meaning Claudin Cherelus is expected to start this week. That could be a good news for Robinson, who failed to score in the first meeting. Other than that, the Panthers should be fairly healthy heading to Atlanta.
Falcons: Starting offensive guards Chris Lindstrom (foot) and Matthew Bergeron (ankle) did not practice Wednesday. Bergeron did not travel to Berlin. Edge rusher Leonard Floyd (hamstring) also was held out Wednesday after missing the game against the Colts. Cornerbacks Mike Hughes (neck) and Dee Alford (concussion) were limited on Wednesday.
Carolina has won two straight and three of the last four in the series. The Panthers closed their 5-12 2024 season by taking a 44-38 overtime win in Atlanta, leaving the Falcons 8-9. The Falcons took a 23-20 overtime win over the Panthers in the teams' first meeting on Sept. 3, 1995, and Carolina won four of the next five games in the new Southeast rivalry. The Falcons won eight of nine against the Panthers in a stretch that began in 2015.
The Falcons are 21-9 against Carolina in games played in Atlanta. ... The Falcons and Panthers each made their last playoff appearance in 2017 and each team is trying to snap a streak of seven straight losing seasons. ... The Panthers are 2-3 on the road this season, with their last road game resulting in a 16-13 win over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. ... QB Bryce Young is 5-4 as a starter this season, but has failed to reach 200 yards passing in eight of nine games. ... WR Xavier Legette has just three catches for 39 yards in the last three games and had no catches last week. Jalen Coker could begin to steal reps from Legette. ... WR Tetairoa McMillan leads the Panthers with 46 catches for 618 yards, both of which are second in the league among rookies. McMillan’s 18 explosive grabs (receptions of 16+ yards) this season are tied for the third most among any wide receiver in the league. ... Carolina has not allowed an offensive touchdown in the first quarter this season. ... After Sunday's game, the Falcons play four of their next five games on the road, including next Sunday's visit to New Orleans. ... Atlanta's 14 sacks allowed are tied for the third-fewest in the league. ... The Falcons had seven sacks, each by a different player, last week against Indianapolis. It marked the first time since sacks became an official stat in 1982 that Atlanta had seven players record sacks. ... With 29 sacks, the Falcons rank fifth in the league and are only two shy of matching their 2024 total of 31, when they ranked 31st. ... The Falcons' average of 162.3 passing yards allowed leads the NFL. ... The Falcons were 0-for-8 on third down last week and have been successful on only 3 of 29 third downs the last three games. ... Penix completed only 12 of 28 passes last week and has completed only 58.8% of his passes this season to rank 31st.
Drake London is the unquestioned go-to target for Atlanta at wide receiver. In the last two weeks, London has 15 catches for 222 yards and four touchdowns, leading the league in each of the three statistics. The Falcons insist they remain confident Darnell Mooney and others will emerge as more productive and dependable help at wide receiver. There is no reason to doubt London's dominant lead role will continue this week.
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