COTONOU, Benin (AP) — Voters in Benin will vote Sunday to elect a new president as outgoing leader Patrice Talon steps down after a decade in power with a mixed legacy of economic growth, but also a growing
jihadi insurgency in the north and a clamp down on the opposition and critics.
Romuald Wadagni, the 49-year-old finance minister and governing coalition standard-bearer, is considered Talon's anointed successor. Wadagni is being challenged by Paul Hounkpè, the sole opposition candidate.
In the parliamentary election in January, the opposition failed to cross the 20% electoral threshold required to win seats, leaving Talon’s two allied parties in control of all 109 seats in the National Assembly and in good position before Sunday's vote.
Renaud Agbodjo, leader of The Democrats, was barred from competing after failing to secure a sufficient number of parliamentary endorsements — a threshold critics say was engineered to keep rivals out.
With the main opposition sidelined, Wadagni is widely considered a favorite due in part to his strong economic track record and broad support from influential figures across historically rival camps, said Fiacre Vidjingninou, political analyst at the Lagos-based Béhanzin Institute.
“Ten years at the Finance Ministry have given him something rare in African politics: a quantified record — verifiable and difficult to dismantle in a serious debate,” Vidjingninou said.
The first round of the vote is set for April 12. In order to secure an outright victory, the winner would need to secure at least 50% of the votes. If that doesn't happen, a runoff will be conducted on May 10 between the top two candidates.
Nearly 8 million people are eligible to vote in the election.
Wadagni is campaigning heavily on the country’s economic performance during his decade as finance minister. Benin’s economy grew 7% last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, making it one of West Africa’s steadiest performers.
Under Talon, the country sustained robust growth for nearly a decade, driven by agriculture, trade and a major port expansion in the economic hub Cotonou that turned Benin into a key transit point for landlocked neighbors. Infrastructure has also expanded.
However, the gains have been unequally shared, with poverty remaining widespread in rural areas and in the poorer northern region.
While Benin has historically been among the most stable democracies in Africa, opposition leaders and human rights organizations have accused Talon of using the justice system as a tool to sideline his political opponents, after taking office in 2016 and changing electoral rules.
In November, a constitutional reform extended presidential terms from five to seven years, established a partially presidential-appointed senate, and further raised the bar for opposition parties to enter parliament.
Rights groups Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have denounced a sustained crackdown on dissent under Talon, citing arbitrary detentions, tight restrictions on public demonstrations and mounting pressure on independent media outlets.
Protests over the rising cost of living sprang up in recent years, but the government and security forces clamped down on them.
Last December, a group of military officers attempted to topple Talon’s government in a failed coup, the latest in a series of recent military takeover attempts across Africa. Most of the coups and attempted coups follow a similar pattern of disputed elections, constitutional upheaval, security crises and youth discontent.
Among the coup leaders’ key complaints was the deterioration of security in northern Benin.
For years, the country has faced spillover violence in its north from neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger in their battle against the al-Qaida-affiliated extremist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM.
The tri-border area has long been a hotbed for extremist violence, a trend worsened by the lack of security cooperation with Niger and Burkina Faso, both now led by military juntas.
Last year, an attack by Islamic militants on military posts killed 54 soldiers.
Vidjingninou said that while the foiled coup in Benin has weakened the narrative of stability of the outgoing administration, the climate of instability might work in favor of the governing party candidate.
“In a context perceived as unstable, cautious voters tend to choose continuity and familiarity over the risk of the unknown,” he said.
Roch Gbenou, a civil servant living in Cotonou, said two key issues stand out for him before Sunday's vote: Equal distribution of wealth, and restoration of democratic freedoms, which “appear to have been substantially restricted” in recent years.
Gbenou, however, said that he has little hope for the election, because “it will ultimately only serve to legitimize a choice already made,” suggesting it won't be a credible process.
Mathias Salanon, a retired police officer, said that he believes Talon has done well and hopes the next president will stabilize the economic and political situations of the country.
"In more than 50 years of my life I have not seen such a fierce will to develop the country as during President Patrice Talon’s 10 years,” he said.
For Sofiath Akadiri, another resident of Cotonou, the most important campaign issues for her are access to health care, education and jobs.
“We also need social justice and the restoration of democratic norms,” she said.
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Mark Banchereau reported from Dakar, Senegal.
