WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and Iran's leadership appear to agree on one thing about their seven-month-old war: they each insist the U.S. election calendar isn't motivating them to find an end to it.
Persistent inflation and high gas prices fueled by the conflict have driven widespread American disapproval of the war — a sentiment casting a long shadow over the Nov. 3 election that will determine whether Trump's party keeps control of Congress.
And U.S. economic sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil are causing profound shocks for Tehran's economy.
Yet, Iranian officials remain insistent there won't be a deal until the U.S. lifts the blockade and delivers sanctions relief. Trump, meanwhile, is vacillating. He has dispatched more military resources to the region and threatened to resume strikes — even as he also declares that the U.S. “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior” to Nov. 3.
Speaking to fellow world leaders last month at the U.N. General Assembly, Trump insisted he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.”
Now, more than a week into a 32-day campaign blitz for Republican candidates, Trump is doubling down on that message, telling voters he's winning the war while darkly warning he's ready to "finish it off" if Iran doesn't capitulate.
“I will tell you what: Iran will be very quick one way or the other,” Trump said Friday as he campaigned in New York. “Either they give us everything, or they don’t exist any longer.”
Trump's campaign bravado comes after his stated war goals in Iran have shifted significantly over the course of the conflict.
He's moved from maximalist demands for unconditional surrender by the theocratic government to a focus on economic pressure, containing Tehran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's economy is certainly in shambles. Its navy and air force have been devastated, and key political and military leaders were killed in the first weeks of the conflict.
Yet, Iran has shown no small measure of resilience in the face of Trump's repeatedly being on the cusp of ordering big new strikes — only to back down at the last moment.
After months of grinding war, an American election season isn't fundamentally changing Iran's approach with the U.S. leader they've found to be an unreliable narrator, said Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official.
Iran's leadership, Karimi added, is concerned that “the U.S., especially in the Trump era, will not be compliant to any deal even if he himself signs it.”
Trump's message isn't easy for Republican candidates to embrace as they make their case to voters frustrated by elevated gas prices and food costs.
Most Americans, 69%, say the war has not been worth fighting, according to a poll published last week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That's up slightly from 64% in July. Only 28% approve of how Trump is handling Iran.
Some Republicans in competitive races have sought to distance themselves from Trump on the war.
In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn’t have to “foot the bill” for the war. Seven House Republicans voted in favor of a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump's war of choice.
Yet, trying to stand apart from Trump on Iran is almost impossible for Republicans so close to Election Day, says Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania.
“It's an enormous weight on Republicans,” Borick said. “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Negotiations had appeared at a standstill after Trump late last month publicly rejectedIran’s proposal to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. met certain conditions.
Iranians, however, say they have since received a U.S. counterproposal and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday said he expected Tehran would offer a formal reply within days. Trump on Thursday described the indirect negotiations as “productive.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran wants a return to the framework of the short-lived June deal. That agreement held out the promise of financial relief for Iran, which never materialized.
But the Iranian president also expressed skepticism. “We are trying to move the process forward. We are having conversations; every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again," Pezeshkian said Thursday as he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan.
As part of any deal, Iranian officials say the U.S. must lift its blockade before Iran agrees to cease attacks on international oil tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are telling America, you have to act first. Enough talking, enough negotiations,” Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and secretary of Iran’s top security body, recently told Iranian state television, boasting that Iran had the upper hand in the conflict.
Some Iranian officials seem to believe that a return to full-scale war may be inevitable.
Mahdi Mohammadi, a Tehran-based analyst and an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said on Telegram that while indirect talks with the U.S. have been “serious," he predicted that “the war will start" again soon.
At his rallies, Trump has pointed to a recent surge in Gulf oil making it through the Strait of Hormuz as he's made his argument that Iran's leadership will soon have to capitulate.
Indeed, Iran has lost its near-chokehold over oil flows through the waterway as U.S. Central Command shepherds oil tankers through the strait at night with their location systems turned off.
But in recent days, Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers passing through the strait. And overall, ship traffic remains well below prewar levels.
Tanker operators willing to risk running the gauntlet under Central Command’s protection are in some cases charging rates of $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
The situation has become further complicated as Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government have launched a military campaign aimed at driving Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical Middle East trade route for oil and other goods.
The Houthis, in turn, are targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure in the kingdom with drone and missile strikes.
Trump insists that the U.S. naval blockade to prevent Iranian oil from getting to market has driven Tehran to the brink.
Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad recently resigned, Iranian state television announced this week. And the Iranian currency, the rial, continues to crater.
Iranian leaders appear convinced that they can still absorb military pressure, and impose further costs on the United States and the global economy, said Karimi, the former Iranian government official.
Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Iranian officials are giving little weight to the midterms as they calculate their next move.
“Iran knows that whether it’s Democrats or Republicans, there is a shared view about the fundamental confrontation with Iran," Safavi said. "They just might not agree regarding the method of confronting Iran. For that reason, the results won’t really create a foundational change in relations with Iran.”
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AP writer Madhani reported from Jerusalem.
