WASHINGTON (AP) — Six months ago, the South Carolina U.S. Senate race was expected to be another straightforward campaign for incumbent Lindsey Graham and his dominant Republican Party.
But Graham's sudden death in July and the elevation of his political neophyte sister Darline from a placeholder role to seeking her own six-year term have roiled the race.
Now supporters of Democrat Annie Andrews can envision something that seemed impossible in this
century of double-digit Republican wins — flipping a Senate seat in one of the nation's most reliable GOP strongholds.
Whoever wins will be the first woman elected to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. But that bit of history has taken a backseat to whispers that have grown into actual predictions that Andrews could be the first Democrat since 1998 to win a statewide race for the U.S. Senate or the governor’s office.
Darline Graham, by her own admission, is a reluctant candidate. She was abruptly thrust into the political spotlight after her brother, a U.S. Senate stalwart, died seeking his fifth term.
Republican Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to finish her brother’s term in a widely hailed move, given the siblings’ close relationship. Lindsey Graham helped raise his younger sister after their parents’ early deaths.
Darline Graham's decision to seek a full six-year term was more surprising. The snap primary, organized just a month after Lindsey Graham's death, drew some of the top names in South Carolina politics.
President Donald Trump wanted Darline Graham in the Senate, and he immediately and forcefully backed her. The president had feuded with her brother at times but saw Lindsey Graham as an ally during his second White House term, particularly on the war with Iran.
As Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, an occasional Trump critic, battled it out in a primary runoff, the president campaigned for her in the state and returned twice in the final weeks before the election.
But that presidential backing may be eroding Graham’s support from both sides. It bothers independent voters unhappy with Trump’s second term and Norman supporters on the right who are unhappy that the president interfered in what should be a decision left up to the state’s voters. Both groups are uneasy about Graham’s inexperience and the prospect of turning the seat into a Graham family dynasty.
In a primary debate, Graham was asked whether the U.S. has a national security interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea — a longstanding contention of both Democratic and Republican administrations. She struggled to answer before admitting, “National security is not my thing.”
As Republican-affiliated groups across the country reshuffled last-minute campaign spending, Senate Republicans’ primary super PAC sent reinforcements to deep-red South Carolina to shore up Graham, even as Republicans said they remained confident they would retain the seat.
Andrews had already been campaigning for more than a year and had won her primary outright when Lindsey Graham died, forcing her to rejigger a general election plan centered on ousting the incumbent.
Andrews has benefited from South Carolina’s leadoff status on Democrats’ 2028 presidential nominating calendar. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly have visited the state, boosting her visibility and their own.
But in recent weeks, Andrews has run an independent campaign and has rarely appeared alongside prominent Democrats from South Carolina or elsewhere. She has focused on economic problems and says Graham will be like her brother, a part of the same Washington cabal that enriches only itself and cares little about the people back home.
When they met for their sole debate last month, Graham and Andrews traded barbs over the economy, war with Iran and artificial intelligence. But they mostly argued over who was less qualified for the South Carolina Senate seat. Andrews came up short in a 2022 challenge to Rep. Nancy Mace but has remained visible since, though she's never held office or run statewide.
Graham fended off Andrews’ accusation that the Republican was seeking to ride her brother’s political coattails, saying she had legally kept her maiden name to maintain a connection to her parents, both of whom died when she was young. “Thank you for bringing up a horrible, tragic memory for me,” she added.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in October appeared to show a close race.
But polls also showed an apparently close race in 2020, when Lindsey Graham, Democrat Jaime Harrison and outside groups supporting their campaigns spent hundreds of millions of dollars in South Carolina’s most expensive election. In that reelection, Lindsey Graham’s last, the Republican sailed back into office by a 10-percentage-point margin.
The last Democrat elected to a Senate seat in South Carolina was Fritz Hollings, who won his final term in 1998. Since then, Republicans have held both Senate seats, and only one Democrat — Jim Clyburn — represents the state in the U.S. House.
Republicans have benefited from straight-ticket voting, which allows voters to choose all GOP candidates on their ballot. The race for South Carolina's open governor's seat hasn't appeared as close as the U.S. Senate contest.
Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates are also on the general election ballot.
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Collins reported from Columbia, South Carolina.
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Kinnard can be reached at http://x.com/MegKinnardAP
