WARSAW, Poland (AP) — NATO's top military commander said the alliance is “ready to fight tonight” if it is attacked, as European officials warn Russia could test NATO's defenses with increased covert attacks or a limited military incursion.
European nations have in recent months faced an escalation of covert Russian activity, including an arson attack on an Estonian defense company and a failed attempt to attack a Ukrainian aircraft at a German airport.
If Russia decides to attack NATO, the alliance will respond by using sensors, autonomous systems and military force to stop any assault, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander U.S. General Alexus Grynkewich said in Warsaw Monday.
Grynkewich spoke at the Warsaw Security Forum to set out what he called NATO’s “Theory of Victory.” The NATO commander said he does not believe that a conflict is imminent or inevitable and that the most effective way to preserve peace is to prepare for war and to maintain open lines of communication to “resolve misunderstandings.”
Grynkewich provided no specific details about what kind of attack NATO is preparing for, nor where, nor with what kind of forces. But outlining what a response to a Russian attack could look like, Grynkewich said NATO’s combined land, sea and air forces will move to stop Moscow seizing territory and deny Russia the ability to hold ground.
“My theory of victory is simple,” he told the Warsaw conference.
“We will block the initial attack. If the attack persists, we will blunt it and prevent any enemy advance. And if required, we will break the enemy’s forces and the operational war-fighting system arrayed against us.”
That includes not just the attacking force but anything and everything that supports, sustains and controls it, he said.
In recent weeks, senior European officials and intelligence services have warned that Russia may be planning to test the NATO alliance with increased covert attacks or even an incursion after a spate of sabotage incidents across the continent. Denmark's defense intelligence service specifically warned Russia could use such tactics to split the NATO alliance.
But, at the same time, President Donald Trump has also sent shock waves through Europe by agreeing to a deal to buy diesel from Russia in a bid to try lower prices in the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections.
Earlier this year, the U.S. president said he was pulling American troops from Europe and his war with Iran has led to critical shortages of advanced air defense missiles in Europe.
“Ultimately it’s a political decision,” as to where troops are deployed but “no one should question the U.S. commitment to the alliance,” Grynkewich said.
It is important, Grynkewich said, that alliance members coordinate a “coherent” response to Russian activity to make it clear to Moscow “where our red lines are.” The response to increased Russian malign activity and sabotage, he said, should be to double down on support for Ukraine.
While Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning to escalate with drone or rocket strikes on European allies supporting Ukraine, other countries have called for calm.
Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Agency said there is a “low but growing risk” that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.
NATO does not seek war with anyone but will see a military attack coming and “is unlikely to be caught by surprise,” Grynkewich said.
Although Grynkewich said NATO would defend against any attack by Russia using a network of sensors and autonomous systems, some NATO nations have previously struggled to perform in exercises simulating drone warfare. They have also faced challenges detecting and responding to incursions of drones which have entered their airspace.
Multiple attack drones have crashed in NATO countries bordering Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. And in May, residents in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius were told to seek shelter after a drone strayed into Lithuanian airspace.
When asked if NATO could deter Russia in the way Grynkewich described, his spokesperson, Col. Martin O’Donnell said NATO nations are increasingly deploying ground sensors and other technology to detect and counter drones. The network that connects systems to shoot down drones and sensors is in the process of being established, although they have not yet taken down any drones, he said.
In September, Germany accused Russia of being behind a plot at Leipzig airport to use a drone laden with explosives to attack a Ukrainian aircraft. British officials also said they thwarted a Russian plot to target a drone facility outside London while Estonian officials said Russia was behind a fire at a defense company.
The incidents are among at least 211 blamed on Russia by Western officials since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and tracked by The Associated Press.
In its assessment released earlier in September, Denmark’s defense intelligence service suggested Russia could try to acquire Ukrainian drones and use them to attack Europe, in order to obfuscate any Russian involvement. Tusk suggested Russia will likely pretend any attacks are “accidental” in order to “paralyze or at least weaken the motivation of NATO countries” to rush to the defense of a member state coming under attack.
The Danish service said the aim of any such attack would be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and sow division in NATO. But both the Danish service and O'Donnell said while Russia is fighting in Ukraine, it would be difficult to launch an outright attack on NATO.
