NFL QB market, impacted by a thin draft class, features Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray and not much else

The Atlanta Falcons have declared Kirk Cousins will be a salary-cap cut. Kyler Murray has been informed of his impending release by the Arizona Cardinals. Geno Smith is widely expected to join them this week once the Las Vegas Raiders let him go.

Beyond them, well, the landscape of available quarterbacks looks quite barren for NFL teams seeking the next Sam Darnold success story in free agency. Trade candidates among proven starters appear to be even

more scarce. For the handful of clubs at a crossroad or committed to starting over this offseason, the timing is hardly ideal.

The rookie class thins quickly after Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, the consensus projection to be taken first overall in the April draft by the Las Vegas Raiders, so going the Drake Maye route to a Super Bowl probably won't happen anytime soon.

Reliable quarterbacks have been of utmost importance for decades in the NFL, but long-term satisfaction with the position across the league is becoming increasingly elusive. Just because a team has paid top dollar for a franchise quarterback doesn’t mean that decision won’t be reconsidered the following year for cost, injuries, performance or all of the above.

After eating more than $99 million in dead money on their salary cap by deciding to cut Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins snatched up the most sought-after free agent. They gave former Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis a reported $45 million guaranteed over three years in a deal that will quickly allow the 26-year-old with just 155 career attempts to cash in even bigger if he can establish himself as a productive and reliable starter.

Tagovailoa? He's already decided to join the Falcons. Jimmy Garoppolo? He's available, but he hasn't started a meaningful game in three years.

Here's a closer look at the most viable options that remain:

Kirk Cousins

The Falcons announced last month they will cut him and fully pivot toward 2024 first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr., whose knee injury last year gave Cousins the job back. His familiarity with the Minnesota Vikings and coach Kevin O'Connell's system could make sense for a reunion. Cousins, who turns 38 before the season, would be a realistic bridge starter to give 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy more time to develop, but Cousins has never signed a bargain contract.

Kyler Murray

Limited to five games by a foot injury last season as the Cardinals slumped to 3-14, Murray will cost them more than $54 million in dead money. He'll also make more than $36 million in real money from the Cardinals, no matter where he winds up, because his 2026 salary is fully guaranteed. Offset language in his contract allows his new team to sign him for the veteran minimum. Murray, the first-overall pick in the 2019 draft, has not won more than nine games in a single season — or any in the playoffs.

Geno Smith

With the expected addition of Mendoza, the busy Raiders have little reason to keep the 35-year-old Smith on the roster after a woeful 2025 season. Releasing him would only stick the Raiders with $18.5 million in dead money, according to figures compiled by Over The Cap. Smith made the Pro Bowl in 2022 and 2023 and could make a serviceable bridge starter for a team wishing to draft a quarterback in the middle rounds this year or wait until the future.

Daniel Jones

After signing a prove-it contract last season with the Indianapolis Colts, Jones was on his way to mirroring the success Darnold — the biggest prize on the market last year — had with the Seattle Seahawks until Jones tore his Achilles tendon in December. Jones is still rehabilitating from the injury, lessening the league-wide interest, but the Colts placing the transition tag on him allows him to continue to negotiate a bigger deal with another club.

The long shots

Aaron Rodgers at age 42 appears unlikely to switch teams again, as a reunion with coach Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh presents an attractive way to put off retirement and stay with the Steelers. Perhaps he'll get another call from the Vikings if their other options dry up. They might also try to pry backup Mac Jones, the former New England Patriots starter before Maye, away from the San Francisco 49ers.

Though Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have hit some bumps in the road together, the two-time NFL MVP is on track for a new deal. He wouldn’t have had a voice in the coaching search if the Ravens were considering a trade. “I have spoken to Lamar about a lot of different things over the last month,” general manager Eric DeCosta said at the combine in Indianapolis last month. “He’s been very engaged.”

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