Going from last place to first in the division is far from an oddity in the NFL.
With last-place teams getting advantages like favorable schedules and higher draft picks, there have been 27 teams since the 2002 realignment that followed up a last-place finish with a division title the following year.
The New England Patriots and Chicago Bears both pulled off the trick last season, making it the fifth time in the last six seasons that at least one team
has done it. Perhaps no team is better positioned to do it this season than the Detroit Lions, who came in fourth in the NFC North with a 9-8 record last season and still have many of the key pieces that helped the team earn the top seed in the NFC playoffs in 2024.
The Lions were hurt by injuries on defense and the struggle to replace offensive play-caller Ben Johnson. Drew Petzig was hired in the offseason to take over as offensive coordinator after John Morton was stripped of play-calling duties midway through the season. The Lions benefit from a last-place schedule that features nine of their 11 games outside the division against teams that finished with losing records last season.
Here’s a look at the contenders based on their odds to finish first from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Odds to win division: +175.
Reason for optimism: The Lions have the best odds of any team in the NFC North to win the division after all four teams in the ultracompetitive division finished with winning records last season. Petzig takes over an offense that could be one of the most potent with stars like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
Reason for pessimism: The offensive line that had been the strength of the team in recent years has several questions. Sewell is moving from right tackle to left tackle and the other four spots are manned by unproven players, including first-round right tackle Blake Miller. The secondary is a major concern with safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph hobbled by injuries that might linger into the season.
Odds to win division: +260.
Reason for optimism: Quarterback Tyler Shough showed promise in nine starts as a rookie, with the Saints getting five of their six wins with him at the helm. New Orleans has a solid offensive line, playmakers Chris Olave and rookie Jordan Tyson at receiver, and a defense that was much improved under coordinator Brandon Staley. With no team in the NFC South finishing with a winning record last season, the gap between last place and first is narrow.
Reason for pessimism: Olave played 16 games last season but has a history of concussions that could be a concern for a team that has few proven stars on offense. The pass rush got 10 1/2 sacks from Cameron Jordan last season but he might need more help as he turned 37 this offseason. If Shough regresses, the Saints could be looking at a sixth straight season out of the playoffs.
Odds to win division: +550.
Reason for optimism: New coach John Harbaugh brings a proven track record to a franchise that needed a big jolt. Jaxson Dart showed flashes as a rookie with 15 touchdown passes and nine TD runs and could be better if WR Malik Nabers is healthy. Brian Burns and Abdul Carter give New York a potential strong one-two punch at pass rusher and rookie Arvell Reese could make an immediate impact.
Reason for pessimism: The Giants had one of the league's worst run defenses last season and traded away defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence in the offseason. That leaves a potentially big hole on the interior defensive line. If Nabers doesn't get back to his rookie form from 2024, the offense lacks playmakers on the outside.
Odds to win division: +850.
Reason for optimism: If Cam Ward takes a big step in year two after some rookie struggles as the No. 1 overall pick and new coach Robert Saleh can improve the defense, the Titans could make a big jump after back-to-back three-win seasons. Star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons anchors the defense and rookie receiver Carnell Tate should provide a big boost to Ward on the outside.
Reason for pessimism: The offensive line remains one of the worst in the league and could hamper Ward's progress. The defense underwent a major overhaul in the offseason but might take more than one season to get back to being competitive.
Odds to win division: +2,000.
Reason for optimism: The Browns got major contributions from last year's draft class led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger, prolific tight end Harold Fannin Jr., running back Quinshon Judkins and defensive tackle Mason Graham. With four picks in the first two rounds in April, the Browns are hoping they added more building blocks.
Reason for pessimism: Not much matters until the Browns find their quarterback. Deshaun Watson is returning from an Achilles injury that sidelined him all last season but he hasn't been an effective quarterback since 2020. Shedeur Sanders made seven starts as a rookie but showed no signs of being a franchise quarterback. The offensive line remains a major problem and the defense must replace Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett after he was traded to the Rams.
Odds to win division: +2,000.
Reason for optimism: A reworked staff under coach Aaron Glenn will lead to improvement and new QB Geno Smith will look more like the passer he was in Seattle than last season with the Raiders thanks to a much better offensive line.
Reason for pessimism: The Jets have the longest active playoff drought in the NFL at 15 seasons and need lots of work to get back to contention. Smith was one of the worst QBs in the league last season.
Odds to win division: +2,200.
Reason for optimism: There's nowhere to go but up after last season's three-win campaign under Pete Carroll. New coach Klint Kubiak takes over after helping Seattle win the Super Bowl last season as offensive coordinator and will develop an offense around No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza. The offensive line should be improved with free agent acquisition Tyler Linderbaum and a healthy Kolton Miller, and the team has young playmakers in Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty.
Reason for pessimism: The Raiders are in a tough division with returning playoff teams Denver and the Chargers, along with Kansas City. The issues that plagued Las Vegas last season will likely take more than a year to fix. The defense lacks stars outside of Maxx Crosby, the wide receivers are weak and there are questions at three spots on the offensive line.
Odds to win division: +10,000.
Reason for optimism: Arizona is hoping new coach Mike LaFleur can help spark an offense that features playmakers like All-Pro tight end Trey McBride, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love at running back, 1,000-yard receiver Michael Wilson and former No. 4-overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. also at wideout.
Reason for pessimism: The Cardinals play in one of the toughest divisions with defending champion Seattle, the Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco all coming off playoff seasons. Journeyman Jacoby Brissett begins the season as QB with third-round rookie Carson Beck in reserve.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
