BRASILIA (AP) — Brazil 's Supreme Court is to deliver Thursday the final two votes by its justices on former President Jair Bolsonaro alleged coup attempt — votes that could send the far-right politician to prison within weeks and deeply impact the nation's politics.
Three out of the five judges have voted so far, with the score 2-1 in favor of a guilty verdict on all five charges for the ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Justice Cármen Lúcia will be the first to vote. If she follows — as she has
in the past — the ruling by the main judge in the case, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, she would tip the scales for Bolsonaro's conviction. Justice Cristiano Zanin will be the last to vote.
The 70-year-old Bolsonaro faces accusations he attempted to illegally hang onto power after his 2022 electoral defeat to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Prosecutors charged Bolsonaro with a total of five charges, They include attempting to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, as well as being implicated in violence and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.
Since the trial began in 2023, Lúcia has followed de Moraes in almost every decision. Zanin, who is Lula’s former attorney, has also sided with de Moraes in most convictions so far, but disagreed with him on penalties he deemed too harsh for other participants in the coup plot.
Justice Luiz Fux on Wednesday disagreed with his two peers who voted a day earlier, on Tuesday, saying there was not enough evidence against Bolsonaro in any of the charges. Fux took more than 13 hours to explain his vote before the panel of justices — and despite what appeared to be upset looks from other justices, there were no challenges to his lengthy delivery.
On related issues, Fux ruled against two allies of the former president. He helped form a majority decision against former aid-de-camp Mauro Cid and former chief of staff Walter Braga Netto on the charge of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law.
If Bolsonaro is found guilty, a full debate on sentencing is expected for Friday. After that, the embattled former leader could face increased pressure to pick a political heir to likely challenge Lula in the general elections next year. A conviction could also compel allied lawmakers to seek some amnesty for the former president through Congress.
In 2023, Brazil ’s top electoral court barred Bolsonaro from running in elections until 2030 over what the court said was his abuse of power.
Fux had previously also lobbied that the Supreme Court throw out the Bolsonaro case, arguing that it was not within its jurisdiction. That stance gives the far-right former leader a higher chance in a future appeal and also opens way for him to score political points with supporters.
Legal experts say the panel's jurisprudence requires at least two dissenting votes in a trial like Bolsonaro's so that he could appeal to the full, 11-justice Supreme Court.
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Sá Pessoa reported from Sao Paulo.
