Eight years ago, during a campaign for Texas attorney general, Justin Nelson ran television advertisements with security camera footage of Ken Paxton pocketing an expensive pen that didn't belong to him.
Four years ago, George P. Bush went after Paxton by putting up billboards that said “he's a crook” next to his mugshot from when he was charged with securities fraud.
And earlier this year, U.S. Sen John Cornyn said “judgment day is coming” as he tried
to fend off a Republican primary challenge from Paxton.
All of them lost. Now the question is whether James Talarico, who topped Rep. Jasmine Crockett in an expensive and fiercely contested Democratic primary, will have any more luck as he faces off against Paxton in one of the country's most closely watched U.S. Senate races.
“The guy’s ability to take shots and just keep moving on and stay in elected office is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my career, in 25 years of running campaigns,” said Ash Wright, who worked as a senior adviser to Bush.
Paxton has never been convicted, and he's survived by championing conservative legal battles over immigration, abortion and transgender issues in a Republican-dominated state. Much like President Donald Trump, he's long portrayed himself as the victim of political persecution.
Former Paxton challengers and a half dozen campaign strategists who worked against him warned that Texans may tune out any attempt to revive scandals that they've heard about for years, especially when rigid partisanship has convinced voters to be extraordinarily forgiving of candidates’ trespasses.
However, Talarico's team has studied the previous races and is attempting its own version of the playbook by trying to paint Paxton as part of a broader culture of corruption that has failed to improve people's lives.
Paxton’s campaign suggested Talarico's claims were aimed at distracting voters from a record of “out-of-touch views.”
“Every time a fighter, like President Donald Trump and now Ken Paxton, stands up to the permanent political class, even after they are completely acquitted of wrongdoing, people like James Talarico continue pushing the same accusations and claiming corruption,” Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy said.
Paxton was first elected as Texas attorney general in 2014, and Nelson ran against him in 2018. A Democratic lawyer from Austin, Nelson made Paxton's indictment on charges of securities fraud central to his campaign, and he poked fun at him for picking up another lawyer's $1,000 pen after finding it at a courthouse security checkpoint.
“Vote Justin Nelson for Texas attorney general,” the narrator said. “He will fight on behalf of all Texans. And he won’t steal your pen.”
Nelson argued that his approach was effective, reflected in Paxton's narrow margin of 3.6 percentage points in a year when Republican Greg Abbott was reelected as Texas governor by more than 13 percentage points. Nelson's campaign spent roughly $6.5 million, about half of what Paxton's campaign spent.
“My message was working," Nelson said. “I just needed to go louder and longer.”
In 2022, Paxton faced a Republican primary challenge from George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner and the grandson and nephew of two former presidents from the state.
The securities fraud case was ongoing, and Paxton was also under federal investigation over accusations that he abused his position to benefit an Austin real estate developer, took bribes and retaliated against whistleblower employees.
Paxton responded by portraying himself as a Trump-era Republican and Bush as the heir to a privileged political legacy.
Pro-Paxton organizations spent more than $20 million, about twice as much as Bush and his allies. The race went to a runoff, in which Paxton defeated Bush by 34 percentage points.
Paxton ran against Rochelle Garza, a Democratic civil rights lawyer from Brownsville, in the general election. She said her campaign had a 300-page opposition research file on Paxton but it was difficult to figure out how to approach his past because voters had heard about it for years.
“The amount of potential hits on Paxton can make message discipline challenging,” Garza said.
Paxton ran as the leading legal opponent of President Joe Biden, promoting a string of lawsuits against Biden's Democratic administration on immigration, abortion and gender policy.
Overwhelmingly outspent, Garza lost by roughly 10 percentage points.
There was more trouble ahead for Paxton.
He split with his wife, who later filed for divorce “on biblical grounds.” He was also impeached by the Texas House, although the Senate acquitted him in 2023 and allowed him to remain in office. The securities fraud case ended in 2024, and Paxton was directed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution.
Throughout the years, he's maintained strong support from Republican voters like David and Nancy Lapp, a retired couple from the small town of Wolfforth. They described him as a conservative warrior who has been a victim of persecution.
“He’s had his share of scandals, and almost all of them have, so it’s not necessarily disqualifying anymore,” said David Lapp, 76. “He’s a flawed person, no doubt about it, but he fights for traditional American ideals.”
He added that "nowadays, as long as you’re not in jail, they’ll elect you.”
Biden's Justice Department in 2024 decided not to prosecute Paxton after the yearslong federal investigation, and Paxton went on to challenge Cornyn for his Senate seat.
Cornyn and his allies vastly outspent Paxton, blanketing the state with more than $90 million in advertising. After the race went to a runoff, Trump endorsed Paxton, and he won decisively.
Talarico promised at a rally in Houston the day after the Republican runoff to “prosecute the case” against Paxton, whom he called “the most corrupt politician in America."
Since then, he has sought to introduce a newer question about Paxton, one that involves his office's handling of a child sexual abuse case this year.
The attorney general's office was assigned the felony case involving Waco lawyer Adam Hoffman after the county district attorney recused himself over a potential conflict of interest. After a hung jury trial last year, Hoffman agreed to state lawyers' offer in April to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge. Prosecutors said the victim did not want to testify a second time. Hoffman served 60 days in jail and was not required to register as a sex offender.
Talarico said the plea agreement shows Paxton is willing to allow preferential treatment at Texans' expense.
“He is everything that’s wrong with this broken, corrupt political system,” Talarico said of Paxton at a rally in Del Rio last week. “This is the rot at the core of this broken political system. It’s why we can’t get ahead, no matter how hard we work, no matter how much we save, because the system is rigged against us."
Talarico reported having $21.5 million available last week, while Paxton reported having $7.5 million.
The Democrat's fundraising advantage could help him broadcast his message further than Paxton's previous opponents have been able to do, Nelson said.
“Even a little bit more money would have helped me,” he said. “I think James has a legitimate shot.”
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Associated Press reporters Jesse Bedayn in Del Rio, Texas, and Marc Levy in Wolfforth, Texas, contributed to this report.
