TORONTO (AP) — Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a referendum in October on leaving Canada, but the province's premier said Thursday it won’t actually be a vote on whether to separate.
Danielle Smith said voters instead would be deciding whether it’s time to hold a binding referendum on quitting Canada.
“I want to be clear. I support Alberta remaining in Canada, and this is how I would vote on separation in a provincial referendum. It
is also the position of my government,” Smith said in televised remarks.
The question will ask whether Alberta should stay in Canada or take legal steps under the Constitution to hold a binding referendum on leaving.
A “yes” vote in a binding referendum still would not trigger independence. Negotiations with the federal government would have to take place. A 1998 Supreme Court ruling means provinces cannot secede unilaterally from Canada.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, noted Smith has publicly opposed independence so some people have compared her stance to the one of Britain's then-Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the Brexit referendum, which he embraced as a way to manage a vocal faction of his ruling party while not wanting the U.K. to leave the European Union.
“Politically Smith seems committed to do so to appease supporters of her own party who want a referendum. If she doesn’t follow suit, she might face a potentially perilous mutiny within her partisan ranks,” Béland said.
Earlier Thursday, three members of Smith’s United Conservative Party of Alberta caucus passed a motion in committee asking her and her cabinet to put the issue to a referendum on Oct. 19.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal Liberal government did not immediately respond to Smith’s announcement.
Carney has been working with Smith to get an oil pipeline to the Pacific coast built to make many Albertans happy.
“As part of his emphasis on economic development in the aftermath of the trade war between Canada and the U.S., Mark Carney is clearly more favorable to pipeline building and the energy industry than his predecessor Justin Trudeau,” Béland said.
Béland said a referendum is likely to lose.
“Support for Alberta independence is slightly below 30% and the percentage of people truly committed to the cause is below 20% according to polling data so the odds of a ‘yes’ vote appear to be very low right now but campaigns matter,” he said.
Opposition Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier said he and all Conservative members of Parliament would press for Alberta to remain part of Canada in a referendum campaign.
