There is still madness in March. There are buzzer beaters. Upsets. Postgame tears. “Wait, what?” moments that go viral and become part of NCAA Tournament lore.
The chaos that makes the tournament such a captivating three-week spectacle is just getting a little harder to come by these days. And that might not be changing any time soon.
For every High Point and VCU — which shredded perfect brackets by the millions while pulling first-round stunners over
power-conference schools — there is an ever-increasing helping of chalk as favorites crush the dreams of potential Cinderellas before they even catch a glimpse of a glass slipper.
The top four seeds in each region went 16-0 across an opening two days that were only occasionally compelling and competitive, just as the top four seeds did a year ago. The average margin of victory in the first round was 17.4 points, the highest ever since the tournament expanded to 64 (and then 68) teams. Fourteen games were decided by at least 20 points, a record, and Florida won by 59 — the second-biggest margin in tournament history.
And while there is increasing parity in women's basketball at the top, higher-seeded teams also had little trouble during first-round contests.
It's not a coincidence that this run of dominance has come nearly in lockstep with the easing of transfer rules and the ability of athletes to make money off their name, image and likeness.
Saint Louis was one of the rare lower-seeded teams to make it to the round of 32 when the ninth-seeded Billikens raced by eighth-seeded Georgia on Thursday. Less than 48 hours later, they were run off the floor by top-seeded Michigan.
Wolverines forward Yaxel Landenberg, so coveted in the transfer portal that he told the AP he was up to $9 million by Kentucky before choosing Michigan, had 25 points and six rebounds in the win.
“I think the talent gap at the top is more significant than it was,” Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz said. “I think NIL has created that, where just the size and physicality, the differences between the top five or 10 teams and everybody else ... I do think there’s a chasm.”
That chasm may be difficult to navigate in the short term, and maybe the long term, as major college athletics endures a Wild West phase following the House settlement that allowed schools to pay athletes directly.
The math is easy: The bigger the school, the bigger the budget. The bigger the budget, the easier it is to attract top talent, including raiding the rosters of schools lower on the food chain.
“These teams that don’t have the resources, it’s just hard to keep anyone longer than one year,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said. “If you’re great, it’s like, you’re in a catch-22. If you play great, you’re gone because there’s people with more resources.”
Alabama coach Nate Oats became one of the hottest commodities in the late 2010s while at Buffalo, leading the Bulls to 32 wins in 2018-19 behind guard C.J. Massinburg. Back then, players who transferred had to sit out a year before being eligible at their new schools.
That rule is no more, leaving Oats to wonder if he'd have been able to hold on to Massinburg for four seasons in the current climate. Rare in 2026 is the player who sticks and stays from signing day to graduation day.
“I’m sure he would’ve loved to stay and play for me, but it’s going to be hard for him to turn down the amount of money he would have been offered,” Oats said.
The trickle-up effect is real. There was a time not so long ago when the blue bloods recruited the best high school players and threw them into the fray right away, while the lower-tier teams that became tournament darlings grew together over time.
Not so much anymore.
“The big, high-major schools are no longer throwing freshmen and sophomores, highly-rated, talented players out there against the low to mid-majors with the fifth-year seniors,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said.
That's in part because so many seniors now find themselves in the big leagues after playing their way up the ladder.
“(Schools are) going out and purchasing a ready-made roster of grizzled, talented veterans,” Hurley said. “So the art of program-building in colleges is over.”
Mid-major schools are also struggling to put together a schedule that prepares them for the step up in competition that awaits in March.
It can sometimes lead to ugly mismatches like the ones peppered across this year's opening round.
High Point wasn't one of those teams. The Big South champion Panthers more than held their own in fending off fifth-seeded Wisconsin on Thursday, continuing a long tradition of 12th-seeded bracket busters.
Still, Panthers coach Flynn Clayman said would like to see things “tweaked” so power-conference programs are incentivized to hit the road or play on a neutral court every once in a while against strong mid-majors.
“Fans deserve to see High Point versus a good team in the nonconference,” Clayman said. “You can run down the list. Look at Santa Clara (against Kentucky), what a game that is. They deserve to get games."
Purdue's Matt Painter understands the frustration but isn't sure those games will happen with any regularity. The Boilermakers played three mid-majors this season, all at home. Any true road or neutral-site nonconference games will likely be saved for other power-conference programs as schools try to boost their NCAA Tournament resumes.
And that could make the brackets even chalkier as the years go on.
Still, all it takes is one thunderclap moment by an underdog for the chalk to be washed away.
That remains the ultimate lure of March. For now.
“I think there was some teams that ducked us this year,” High Point forward Cam'Ron Fletcher said. “But, I mean, like coach Flynn say, we’re here now, so ... there’s no ducking anymore.”
In the tournament, for better or worse, there never is.
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AP Sports Writers Dan Gelston, John Wawrow, Dave Skretta, Doug Feinberg and Brett Martel contributed to this report.
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AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness
