It’s already been an intense hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean — and there’s still quite a ways to go.
Tropical storms have spawned in what seems like assembly-line fashion in recent weeks, as El Nino conditions that emerged in June have caused waters to grow warmer than normal, setting off a chain of unusual weather around much of the world.
“It’s ramping up to be perhaps the strongest El Nino on record,” University of Miami hurricane expert Brian
McNoldy said.
The number of hurricanes in the eastern Pacific has already surpassed what occurs in a typical season. This week alone, Hurricane Polo drenched Mexico’s Pacific Coast as it seesaws between Category 4 and 5. And in storm-weary Hawaii, there’s the potential for catastrophic flooding from a growing Tropical Storm Nolo.
During El Nino, low-level surface winds blowing from east to west across the Pacific are weakened or sometimes reversed. It causes a shift in the jet stream and drives record global heat, severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies.
El Ninos don’t follow a regular schedule, occurring every two to seven years on average. Some can be mild. Others can pack a punch. McNoldy predicted that the current El Nino will peak during the coming winter but linger into 2027.
“It doesn’t turn off right away,” he said.
While the focus is on the increased number of Pacific storms, El Ninos conversely curtail hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean: Tropical weather activity in the Atlantic has been virtually silent this year.
Thanks to El Nino, both the eastern Pacific and the central Pacific have seen four more tropical storms than is normal to date with more than two months left in the hurricane season, said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service.
From 1991 to 2020, there were an average of 15 named storms in the eastern Pacific per season, which runs from May 15 to Nov. 30.
But surpassing the yearly average in September? “That's a different story,” Rosencrans said.
What also sets this year’s El Nino-fueled storms apart is that three Pacific hurricanes have reached Category 5 strength, tying a record set in 2002, also during an El Nino, he said.
The most active season on record in the eastern Pacific was 1992, when there were 25 named storms, Rosencrans said. For the central Pacific, it was 14 in 2015.
In 2015 there were nine major hurricanes, of Category 3 or higher, in the eastern Pacific, but no reported deaths. Due to El Nino, forecasters said the eastern Pacific storms formed farther west and tracked more westward, remaining over the open ocean throughout their cycle.
During another strong El Nino in 1997, hundreds of people died when Hurricane Pauline tore across Mexico’s Pacific coast. That same year Tropical Storm Nora gave landlocked southwestern Arizona an unusual soaking. And a December storm in Southern California caused flooding that swept cars into a storm channel and prompted evacuations of some mobile home parks.
In 1998, El Nino was blamed for flooding in China that killed 4,150 people, most along the Yangtze River.
The state has felt the wrath of two hurricanes over the past month. Lala in August and Lowell in early September combined to destroy or damage more than 510 homes and cause $168 million in damage to public infrastructure. Lala also caused $21.5 million in damage to 38 schools.
Assuming Tropical Storm Nola follows current forecasts for it to strengthen dramatically in the coming days south of the islands, that will make it three. Forecasters say the storm could drop rainfall amounts on Hawaii that are measured in feet, not inches.
On top of that, heavy rains in March caused the worst flooding to hit Hawaii in two decades. That was followed in May by a magnitude-6.0 earthquake, prompting Gov. Josh Green to remark that this year has been “unlike anything I can recall.”
Two hurricanes came within 200 miles (320 kilometers) of Hawaii in 1957, but that did not happen again for more than a half century. Then it occurred in 2014, 2016 and 2018 before this year's predicted trifecta.
Meteorologists often worry about “preparedness fatigue,” when communities gear up for storms that never arrive or fall short of their potential strength. But John Bravender, a weather service warning coordination meteorologist, said 2026 has yielded a different type of weariness in Hawaii.
“The fact that we’ve had these damaging impacts that keep happening, and as we’re recovering from them, we have to get ready for the next event — that’s a new one that really drains the resources and leads to this overall sense that this is a very busy hurricane season for us,” he said.
Residents understand the risks and are getting more accustomed to preparing.
“I think community members realize how dangerous the weather can be, how important it is for them to be self-sufficient, have food, water and also look out for their neighbors,” Bravender said.
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Associated Press writer Gabriela Aoun Angueira contributed.
