ROSTOCK, Germany (AP) — Two German regional elections this weekend are expected to bring more gains for a far-right party, and could determine whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz can hold on to power and push ahead with reforms to Europe's biggest economy.
Merz’s authority was damaged by his party’s stinging defeat Sept. 6 at the hands of the anti-migration, Russia-friendly Alternative for Germany in Saxony-Anhalt, a small eastern state. Alternative for Germany,
or AfD, finished just short of a majority there and has its best chance yet of forming the country’s first far-right regional government since World War II.
Merz, 70, became Germany's leader 16 months ago with promises to turn around an economy that has barely grown in years, but has failed to lift a sullen national mood and has himself become deeply unpopular.
On Sunday, two more states hold elections: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another largely rural region in the formerly communist and less prosperous east; and the capital, Berlin.
AfD is expected to make significant gains, but has no realistic path to power in Berlin and faces a much stronger challenge from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's center-left governor than it did from Merz's party in Saxony-Anhalt.
Prospects for Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union are bleaker. It could lose the mayor’s office in Berlin. If things go very badly, it could fail for the first time to win seats in a state legislature anywhere by falling below 5% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it was already weak.
Merz said last week that “giving up is not an option for me.” But the CDU’s deputy local leader in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania called for him to go, and speculation has mounted that he might soon be replaced — although no top-level allies have called publicly for his departure, and many have warned against “personnel debates.”
Apparently anticipating a tough post-election period, Merz abandoned a planned trip to New York next week to attend the U.N. General Assembly.
“Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will bring a disastrous result for the CDU,” said Wolfgang Muno, a political science professor at the University of Rostock, the state’s biggest city. “And if the CDU also does badly in Berlin and loses the mayor, then a great deal of pressure will be exerted on Friedrich Merz.”
Two conservative governors, Hendrik Wüst of North Rhine-Westphalia and Markus Söder of Bavaria, have frequently been named as possible successors. It’s unclear whether they or anyone else might step up to take over, but the national governing coalition of Merz’s center-right Union bloc and the center-left Social Democrats could try to change faces and some policies, Muno said.
Still, the CDU's eight state governors on Wednesday publicly backed Merz, saying in a statement they're determined to tackle people's problems “together with the chancellor,” German news agency dpa reported.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s governor, Social Democrat Manuela Schwesig, pointed to a central problem for Merz. “The chancellor doesn’t give people the feeling that he sees and understands their problems,” she said this week.
The government has struggled to persuade voters that it can get the chronically sluggish economy moving through potentially painful reforms, including to the pension system. And there are conflicts among the governing parties about their details.
Merz’s sharp-tongued style also grates on many voters. A comment last year that “the prosperity our country today has can’t be preserved in the future with a work-life balance and a four-day week, so we must work more” drew criticism. He also has complained that Germans take too many days off sick.
The national government’s unpopularity is working against the CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but it also risks being squeezed in a head-to-head race between AfD and Schwesig.
Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have many similarities, Muno said. But “a significant difference is that, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the current governor is by a long distance the most popular and well-known politician in the state.”
Billboards advertise Schwesig as “the woman against blue,” the far-right party’s color, and she appears to be drawing voters away from other mainstream parties.
Her AfD opponent is Leif-Erik Holm, a federal lawmaker with a relatively moderate image in a party that has moved steadily further right over recent years. He's hoping for momentum from Saxony-Anhalt.
AfD lawmaker Beatrix von Storch said at a campaign event that “people are fed up and they want something different.” She argued that Merz “is carrying out the wrong reforms” and that cuts should be made to spending, including on Ukraine and development aid.
Holm lacks potential allies as mainstream parties refuse to deal with AfD. That’s even more of an issue for the far-right party in Berlin, where its support is considerably lower. The capital has tended to lean left in recent years.
Merz’s CDU has led Berlin since it rode a wave of discontent with local politics to take the mayor’s office in 2023. It faces a leftist challenge this time, along with home-made problems.
Mayor Kai Wegner abandoned his re-election bid in July after it emerged that he hadn’t told the truth about aspects of his crisis management when sabotage caused a large-scale power cut last winter. His deputy, Stefan Evers, is running instead. Berlin’s election is dominated by local issues, primarily rising rental costs.
Merz, meanwhile, has signaled that he's determined to stay on and doubled down rhetorically on his reform plans.
“We were elected for four years. I was elected for four years,” Merz said at a meeting of Germany's exporters association on Tuesday. “And I want us to use these four years to lead our country out of this difficult phase.”
Merz also dismissed suggestions that he could try to run a minority government without his center-left partners, saying that it's an “illusion” to believe his conservatives could push policies through parliament alone.
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Geir Moulson reported from Berlin. Pietro De Cristofaro contributed to this report from Rostock, Germany.
