JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli voters delivered a rebuke Tuesday to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with exit polls indicating voters gave his opponents a solid majority in the next parliament. Whether those disparate parties can form a government is uncertain and will likely take weeks of haggling.
The easiest path would involve Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, partnering with Arab-led parties, but that could prove politically
difficult and potentially alienate other opposition factions.
Exit polls released early Wednesday by major Israeli TV stations suggested that Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot's each won about 51 seats, and Arab parties won about 18. That would set the stage for weeks of political jockeying before a prime minister is declared — or another round of elections is called.
While Netanyahu’s Likud could emerge as the largest party, voters, disappointed in his alliance with the far-right and angry over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, appeared to have shrunk his bloc’s majority in parliament, jeopardizing his return to power.
Eisenkot said the exit polls show a “lack of confidence” in Netanyahu and he vowed to form a new government. Arab voters celebrated the exit polls while supporters of far-right parties aligned with Netanyahu expressed disappointment.
Netanyahu had yet to make a public statement early Wednesday, hours after the exit polls were released.
Like all surveys, exit polls are subject to potential error. Preliminary results are expected in the coming hours. Final results are expected in the coming days and may vary from the exit polls.
An inconclusive result would leave Israel in political limbo after the country’s first national election since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
The race was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule, which had left Israelis bitterly divided on a host of issues even before the deadliest attack in the country's history. The resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stoked worldwide outrage, straining ties with Israel’s closest allies and fueling a rise in antisemitism.
Among Israelis, the election was broadly viewed as a struggle over the character of the state, pitting Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against those seeking to preserve its liberal and secular foundations. The opposition may soon have to grapple with the social divisions — between right and left, and between Jews and Arabs — that have widened during Netanyahu's long and polarizing rule.
Voter turnout was the highest since 1999, with more than 77% of eligible voters casting ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee. Over 7 million people were eligible to vote, and tens of thousands reportedly arrived from overseas.
Israel’s president will be tasked with asking the party leader with the best prospect of forming a government, usually one with the most seats, to cobble together a coalition. If Netanyahu's right-wing Likud emerges as the largest party, he could claim that right.
Meanwhile, there will be heavy pressure on Eisenkot to reach a deal with the Arab parties, while Netanyahu and his allies are likely to cast any such alliance as illegitimate and even treasonous.
Netanyahu had warned earlier that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they were receiving “truly massive support” and heading to the polls in “unprecedented numbers.”
If no one can cobble together a majority coalition, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.
No single party has ever won an outright majority in the country’s 120-seat parliament, forcing political leaders to forge coalitions. Minority governments are also possible, but they must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.
Netanyahu’s current coalition peaked at 68 members before it began to disintegrate over the past year.
As the exit polls were broadcast, supporters at Eisenkot's party headquarters jumped for joy, chanting his name.
In a speech early Wednesday that focused on national unity, he pledged to form a government and promised “a new era — an era of hope” for Israelis.
“Today, Israel went out to a referendum over the leadership that will lead Israel in the coming years,” Eisenkot said to cheers from supporters. “The people decided in favor of change.”
Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to “dare use Israel's security for your political needs” while he is a caretaker prime minister, an apparent reference to reports that the Israeli leader considered an attack against Iran in the sensitive days leading up the election.
At Netanyahu's party headquarters, filled mainly with media, the few supporters present chanted Netanyahu's name, draping themselves in flags with his face on them and kissing posters.
Netanyahu’s supporters see him as a steady hand and a consummate statesman who has led Israel through a war of redemption after the country’s darkest hour. They think he is protecting Israel’s security and Jewish identity in the face of international pressure and liberal elites at home.
His detractors see him as a polarizing leader who, beset by an ongoing corruption trial, dragged out the war in Gaza and its hostage crisis for political reasons. They say he is undermining Israel’s independent judiciary and weakening its democratic underpinnings. And they accuse him of abetting the system that has allowed ultra-Orthodox religious Jews to avoid military conscription.
“The present government is driving the country into the ground,” voter Angela Bengur said in Jerusalem.
Eisenkot is viewed by supporters as a capable leader with sterling security credentials who, along with his likely governing partners, could act as a bulwark against creeping illiberalism. As someone personally touched by the conflict — his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza — his backers believe that he feels deeply the pain that still courses through Israel.
Parties that likely would support Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel’s international standing and work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men while bolstering the independence of the judiciary.
The elections are about “who serves and who evades service — who takes an active part in building this country and who doesn’t,” said voter Nisso Shitrit in Tel Aviv's Jaffa neighborhood.
The election is Israel's first national vote since the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war in Gaza and related conflicts. In Tel Aviv, families of some killed on Oct. 7 or former hostages held a moment of silence during the vote.
“Remember all those whose voices are no more,” said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed.
Israel has found itself increasingly isolated over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Public support among Americans has plummeted, and partners in Europe and elsewhere have slapped sanctions on Israel. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, allegations he denies.
Also hanging over the election were lingering tensions with Iran. Netanyahu ramped up threats ahead of the vote, warning Tehran it would face “a devastating blow” if it attacked Israel.
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Associated Press writers across Israel contributed to this report.
