LAS VEGAS (AP) — Denver would be a slight favorite if quarterback Bo Nix was healthy and ready to play Sunday in the AFC championship game, but the Broncos instead are fairly substantial underdogs to New England.
It's a development that has caused some head shaking in the sports betting industry.
The Broncos would be about 1 1/2-point favorites in the AFC championship game, but as of Wednesday afternoon, the Patriots were favored by 5 points at BetMGM
Sportsbook and 4 1/2 at Caesars Sportsbook.
“Typically, a quarterback is worth about four points to the line,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “This line movement based off that opening line is pretty close to six or seven, which I find pretty interesting. I personally think as we get closer to kickoff, it'll come back closer to the Broncos. I think this will close maybe 3 1/2, 4, but we'll see what happens.”
Nix is out for the remainder of the postseason after breaking his right ankle late in Saturday's 33-30 victory over Buffalo in the divisional playoffs round. Jarrett Stidham, who last started a game in 2023, will take his place.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars, said he was surprised to see such a significant line movement.
“I don't think Bo Nix is heavily regarded as an elite quarterback in the league or a true game-changer,” Feazel said. “Obviously, he made some really good throws this past weekend and has been consistent throughout the year."
CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall is a buyer on the Broncos. He likes Denver coach Sean Payton's history of getting quality play out of his backup quarterbacks going back to his days in New Orleans.
“I think they've inflated this line too much," Marshall said. “This is not like a Super Bowl where it's very artificial the way the crowd is and all the hoopla. This is still like a regular game and it's in Denver, where they are very tough to beat. I think Denver's going to win this game and we'll see what happens in the Super Bowl.”
If the point spread — 2 1/2 points at BetMGM and Caesars in favor of Seattle — is to be believed, the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams should play another tense game when they meet in the NFC championship game.
They split the regular-season meetings, with the Rams winning 21-19 at home and the Seahawks 38-37 in Seattle. LA blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in the rematch before falling in overtime.
Cipollini said three times more betting action has come in on the Seahawks.
“If you do like the Seahawks, right now is the time to get on,” Cipollini said. “Any sharps (professional bettors) that are on the Seahawks are going to want to take them at 2 1/2. Just judging where this number is, if anything, it feels it can possibly get to 3.”
Feazel noted the Rams were favored just a month ago when they played at Seattle.
“Week in, week out, there's some recency bias that goes into the lines,” Feazel said. “What have you done for me lately and what did we see last week and expect the same thing. That's what makes the NFL so great.”
Lumen Field has provided a notable home-field advantage for the Seahawks.
Even so, the Rams were in position to win the regular-season meeting there, and they won both their playoff games on the road so far this postseason.
The Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford will attempt to become the sixth team to win three road games in one postseason. The four most recent teams to accomplish that went to win the Super Bowl.
“I almost think the Rams are better off playing on the road,” Marshall said. “Even at home, a lot of times almost half the fans are for the other team. They're the only team I think can go into Seattle and have a chance against this defense.”
Sam Darnold struggled earlier in his career until a breakout season with Minnesota in 2024, but he now is the only quarterback to lead two different teams to consecutive 14-win seasons.
The eight-year veteran finally earned his first playoff victory Saturday, a 41-6 win over banged-up San Francisco.
BetMGM and Caesars list the Seahawks and Rams as two leading favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Seattle or Los Angeles would be favored by a field goal or more over the Patriots in the big game and by at least 7 1/2 points over the Broncos.
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