LAS VEGAS (AP) — Sportsbook operators anticipated this year's World Cup would set betting records because the major elements were aligned.
The world's most popular sporting event is being played in North America, so U.S. audiences can see the games live while the sun is out or in the early evening. The U.S. also has a team that may be its most talented in history.
And then the U.S. went out and won its first two matches to capture its group.
“I think
it has exceeded our expectations,” said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sportsbook's head of soccer trading, said of the money being bet.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said the wagering on the 48-team World Cup, which opened the knockout stage on Sunday, is putting itself in the same company as the always popular NCAA Tournament in college basketball.
“It could be the biggest event of the year when it's all said and done,” Avello said. “March Madness takes place over the course of three weeks, and it rakes quite a bit of money. This is getting there.
“It blows the Super Bowl away. One game, one day. This thing here is way bigger than that.”
Christian Cipollini, BetMGM Sportsbook's trading manager, said the enormous interest in the U.S. team has only grown. The Americans open the single-elimination phase of the tournament on Wednesday night against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara, California.
“I expect that to be BetMGM's most bet-on soccer game of all time,” Cipollini said. “In this World Cup, all three of our most bet-on games have been the three USA games. This game is leading up to be a perfect storm where the USA looks very good. There's a lot of hype around the team.”
The three sportsbooks list Kylian Mbappé-led France as the favorite to win it all, with Lionel Messi and defending champion Argentina not far behind. They are on opposite sides of the bracket, so if they face each other, it would be in the final, a rematch of four years ago.
At BetMGM, 15.3% of tickets have been on France, the most of any country, and it has received 20.4% of the money. That is slightly below Spain, which has taken in 20.5% of the handle, much if not most of it before the tournament.
Longtime handicapper Bruce Marshall cautioned against assuming France and Argentina would meet in the final.
“I could see seven or eight teams winning this thing,” Marshall said. “So any favorite at this stage, I don't know that there's great value there.”
Americans like a good underdog story, and wagers are coming in on some teams with exceptionally long odds.
“Bettors like to take a shot for a small amount of money and put it on those teams,” Avello said. “Of course, that risk is high for us because it doesn't take much. A $5 bet on Congo, it's $5,000 (in a payout). You take quite a few of those and the liability gets up pretty high on them.”
Marshall said it would make sense to take a look at Colombia (33-1 at BetMGM) or Switzerland (66-1) as teams with great value.
“Colombia looks really dangerous, and they're getting a lot of support,” Marshall said. “They played their first couple of games in Mexico, which were like home games for them.
“The one nobody's talking about is Switzerland, and they're one of these teams that remind me a of a club side. I say that in positive terms because they're very familiar with one another. A lot of these World Cup teams are sort of thrown together and haven't played much with each other. Switzerland's got guys who've played, 80, 100 games together.”
Should the Americans pull off the nearly unthinkable and win the World Cup, the sportsbooks would be feeling financial pain.
The U.S. has gone from a 50-1 long shot to 25-1 at BetMGM, and the Americans are 30-1 at Caesars and 33-1 at DraftKings.
“If the U.S. would’ve limped into the knockout round, our liability probably wouldn’t be as high as it is,” Cipollini said. “But the fact that they’ve looked good, there’s a lot of people that are, ‘They do have a chance.’ It’s on home soil. It’s easy to talk yourself into something we all kind of want to happen.”
A 1997 episode of “The Simpsons” featuring a match between Mexico and Portugal is causing some fans to believe the long-running TV show forecast that meeting in this year’s World Cup.
That’s not the case. Neither the World Cup nor the year 2026 were mentioned.
But those details apparently doesn’t matter to some bettors, causing a notable uptick in wagering on that matchup taking place.
“We have got a liability on that,” Bickerdike said.
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See more of AP’s World Cup coverage here
