Golden State coach Steve Kerr can do the math. He knows the Warriors are headed to the play-in tournament.
The Warriors have 13 games left in the regular season and their loss in Boston on Wednesday night — another game that Stephen Curry missed with a knee issue — left them 8 1/2 games out of sixth place and the final guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference.
That said, they're also 8 1/2 games ahead of 11th place. So, while it's still mathematically
possible that the Warriors end up outside of play-in tournament range — that's for teams finishing seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th in each conference — Kerr knows that won't be the reality.
“What I’m most interested in right now is can we prepare ourselves for the play-in," Kerr said after Wednesday's 120-99 loss. "We're going to be in the play-in. We know that — one way or the other. So, we’ve got to prepare.”
The regular season ends April 12 and the top six finishers in each conference are guaranteed playoff spots. The teams that finish 11th through 15th in each conference are eliminated.
For the other clubs, that leaves the play-in tournament, which will run from April 14 through April 17. A very small version of it was played in the bubble in 2020, and the version the league uses now has been in use since 2021.
It works like this, in both conferences:
— The No. 7 seed plays host to the No. 8 seed in Round 1, while the No. 9 seed plays host to the No. 10 seed.
— The winner of the 7-8 game goes to the playoffs to face the No. 2 seed in Round 1.
— The loser of the 7-8 game plays host to the winner of the 9-10 game, for the chance to play the No. 1 seed in Round 1 and the final spot in each conference's playoff bracket. The loser of that game is eliminated.
— The loser of the 9-10 game is eliminated.
“We’ve had our eyes on (the No. 6 seed) for a while. And that’s out of the question now," Kerr said. “I mean, we’re not getting there. And so, if we can string together some wins, try to get to eight, that’d be ideal. Get two cracks at it. We’re not getting to seven. We know that.”
The Warriors have spent most of the season in that play-in range, holding down the No. 8 spot almost without interruption from mid-November into March. Their current slide — they've lost eight of their last 10 games — has seen them fall to No. 10 in the West race.
Curry is on the Warriors' current road trip and has been working out and getting shots up, his knee evidently feeling better than it did a week or two ago. The team plans to update his status on Saturday, ahead of its game in Atlanta that night.
That means it's possible Curry could play against the Hawks.
“He may or may not have already had a little contact,” Kerr said.
The Warriors aren't getting Jimmy Butler back this season; he tore his ACL in January. But they do expect Curry, Al Horford and Moses Moody — all have been sidelined with injuries — back, and Kerr wants Golden State ready to find its best stride when that happens.
“Over the last few weeks, I’ve been telling the guys we have to build our habits and be ready for when we get guys healthy again,” Kerr said. “Then we can really have the firepower that can be complemented by a foundation of good habits, good fundamentals. ... Being prepared for that time is everything for us.”
Entering Thursday, Phoenix, the Los Angeles Clippers, Portland and Golden State would be the West's play-in teams. And while nothing is locked up, it would seem mathematically likely that the Clippers and Trail Blazers have the same sort of thinking as the Warriors do right now — since their odds of getting to No. 6, or falling below No. 10, are quite slim.
Assuming Kerr is right and the Warriors go to the play-in, it'll be their third consecutive trip there and fourth overall. The Suns have never been there, the Clippers' lone appearance there was 2022 and Portland's only “play-in” appearance was 2020 — when it and Memphis were the only teams who went to that round in the bubble season.
In the East, entering Thursday, the play-in lineup would be Miami, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte — all well ahead of the teams in that 11th through 15th range, though getting to No. 6 (or even higher) in the East isn't outside the logical realm for any of those clubs yet.
The Hawks have been to the play-in round in four consecutive seasons. The Heat have been there in each of the last three seasons, while Charlotte's last appearance was 2022 and Philadelphia's was in 2024.
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