BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary 's elections on April 12 will have profound aftershocks as many in the European Union hope for the defeat of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is widely seen as endangering the future of the 27-nation bloc.
Orbán, the EU's longest-serving leader, has trailed in the polls. His 16-year grip on power has tested the EU system of governance meant to ensure peace through economic and political integration after
the ravages of the world wars. His rival Péter Magyar told the Associated Press he would repair Hungary's relationship with the EU if elected.
The EU is grappling with enormous threats: the rise of right-wing populism, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Russian sabotage efforts, Chinese economic expansion and a White House that is upending decades of transatlantic cooperation.
But Orbán's vetoes have limited EU responses. Lawmakers and analysts say he has used his right of veto and a deep understanding of how the bloc disperses funding to members to entrench his power and gain outsize influence by blocking decision-making to extract concessions.
“He entered a club, read the rules, figured out how he can rig the rules, and then started to be a free rider and blackmail all of the other club members,” said Dániel Hegedűs, deputy director with the Berlin-based Institute for European Politics. “The question is, how long will the club members tolerate it?”
It didn't start that way. After the Cold War, Hungary joined the EU along with nine other countries in 2004 in the bloc's largest expansion ever. There was widespread optimism for Hungary, said Jim Townsend, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
But after economic crises, Orbán came to power by promising prosperity to the rich and poor alike, said Gábor Scheiring, a former Hungarian lawmaker now teaching at Georgetown University in Qatar. He also built bonds with conservative politicians across the bloc.
Orbán began vilifying the EU, often comparing Brussels to the Soviet Union, even while receiving massive amounts of EU money, and resisting pressure to reverse democratic backsliding.
From 2014 until 2022, "Hungary was one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU funds,” Scheiring said. “Orbán could navigate the EU system really well: get all the money and get away with his political shenanigans.”
The EU grew frustrated with Orbán's failures to ensure judicial independence and media freedom and to rein in corruption. It began freezing billions in funding to Budapest in 2022 over breaches of rule-of-law standards.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orbán frequently used his veto power to stymie efforts to support Kyiv and sanction Moscow. His closeness with Russian President Vladimir Putin was noted.
Last month, when Orbán reneged on a deal struck in December to provide Ukraine with a 90-billion euro ($104-billion) loan, the famously amiable European Council President Antonio Costa was visibly irked: “Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions,” he said.
As many see it, a thorn in the EU's side is that major decisions require unanimity among its members. Critics say it has kept the bloc from taking stronger actions on other critical issues like the war in Gaza.
An internal European Parliament report shows that Orbán has vetoed far more than any other leader in the EU's history, said Daniel Freund, a German lawmaker.
“It’s staggering. No one else even comes close,” Freund said. “This is the biggest design flaw in the EU that he has exposed.”
Orbán's vetoes have led to calls to reform the bloc's foundational treaties to buttress against future authoritarians — or Orbán himself, if he wins the election.
There are ways to do that, but each has limitations.
The EU could reduce the number of issues that require a unanimous vote. That would allow measures to pass with a simple majority of the 27 national leaders representing roughly two-thirds of the bloc's population.
Hegedűs said the European Commission “could play even more hardball” by crafting sanctions to address specific breaches of EU rules.
Some politicians have even proposed invoking Article 7 of the Treaty of the EU, a legal measure that could revoke Hungary's voting rights in the bloc.
That would require the agreement of all the EU's other leaders, however, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said he would veto such a measure.
There are other tools the EU could use.
The European Commission has not approved Hungary’s bid to draw some 16 billion euros ($18.4 billion) as part of an EU program to boost members' defense capabilities. The 18 other countries that submitted plans to use the funds have been approved.
If Orbán is reelected, the EU could use that funding as a bargaining chip to extract concessions such as lifting his veto of the 90 billion euros to Ukraine, Hegedűs said. But there’s no guarantee he won’t find other policies to veto once Hungary gets the money.
“What will the EU offer in two to three or four months when the next strategic decision will come and Orbán will block again?” Hegedűs said.
Orbán's conduct has prompted a reexamination of how the EU accepts new members and monitors current ones.
The ongoing negotiations with Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine to join the EU are increasingly shaped by the tumultuous experience with Hungary.
In February, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said the 12 countries including Hungary that joined the EU from 2004-2007 “led to a new era of stability for our continent and an impressive level of economic convergence."
But without naming Hungary or any other nation, Kos said a lesson learned from 2004 is that “we need to have safeguards that ensure new members stick to the rules.”
“If countries go backwards on our fundamentals, such as democracy and rule of law, the safeguards must bite," the commissioner said, adding: “No Trojan horses."
___
McNeil reported from Brussels.
