NEW YORK (AP) — When midterm campaigning began, each major political party had a clear game plan. Republicans would emphasize border security and an economy that was finally shaking off years of high inflation. Democrats would focus attention on a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump to energize their voters.
It hasn't worked out that way. With a little more than three months to go, both parties are grappling with self-inflicted wounds and messy
missteps that have complicated their paths to victory.
Trump steered the country into a war against Iran with no end in sight, disrupting the global flow of oil and spiking prices at the pump. He remains fixated on purging his party of dissent and relitigating his election defeat six years ago. He's visiting Georgia on Wednesday to ostensibly promote new investment accounts for children, but what he'll actually talk about is anyone's guess.
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are in the throes of an internal civil war between moderates and progressives, as democratic socialists successfully oust incumbents in places including New York and Denver. Some of their candidates have imploded in spectacular fashion, jeopardizing races that the party had expected to win.
The drama has turned existential as each party faces a moment of reckoning. Democrats remain shaken by Trump's reelection and are desperately searching for a path back to power. Republicans are beginning to contemplate a post-Trump era even as the president maintains an iron grip on the party.
Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster, said the year has been consumed by “a sense of chaos and confusion.”
“We really do not know what’s going to happen in November," he said.
Democrats' latest turmoil has unfolded in Wisconsin, one of the nation's most narrowly divided battleground states.
Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez abandoned her bid for governor after a campaign finance scandal just as she seemed to be consolidating support. Now the party establishment is concerned that her departure will elevate Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who's viewed by party leaders as a potentially weak opponent against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the likely Republican nominee.
After her departure, David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, jumped back into the race and received a rare endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers, the Democratic incumbent.
“If we lose, Trump’s most loyal lackey in Congress takes control of Wisconsin, and that’s turned regular Democratic angst into flop sweats,” said longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross. Still, he predicted that once the focus moves past the primary fight, “Democratic unity will be so high in Wisconsin we’ll all be getting nosebleeds.”
Democrats' most consequential derailment might have taken place in Maine, where the party is eager to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins as part of a nationwide push to regain control of the chamber.
Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political outsider, rode a wave of grassroots energy to beat the establishment pick, Gov. Janet Mills, for the Democratic nomination, only to drop out after facing an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies.
Supporters had hoped Platner would be the kind of candidate who could win white working-class voters back to the party, despite controversies including a tattoo widely recognized as a Nazi symbol and a history of inflammatory social media posts. Now Democrats are holding a convention this coming weekend to choose a replacement candidate.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and consultant, said activists and voters have been willing to overlook potential vulnerabilities while supporting outsiders for office.
“There is something in the air that has made these candidates incredibly reckless and thinking that they can get away with it," she said, pointing to the president as a potential explanation. “I think Trump has kind of created a high-risk environment."
Marc Short, the former chief of staff to Trump's first-term vice president, Mike Pence, said the dynamic was reminiscent of when the tea party ushered in a wave of untested Republican candidates who famously beat establishment figures in primaries but lost in November, costing Republicans the Senate even as they made gains in the House.
The shoe, he said, is now on the other foot.
“I feel like when there is a lot of energy on one side that you can tend to nominate candidates that create hurdles for you and limit what your gains could be,” he said.
Other races are forcing Democrats to confront some of their deepest divisions and questions about which wing of the party will best position it to win the next presidential election.
In Michigan, progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed has worried party leaders like Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer who fear he's too far left to win in the battleground state. Democrats will need to hold the Michigan seat opened by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters if they want a shot at winning the majority this year.
The primary also highlights a schism over Israel. El-Sayed, running to become the first Muslim U.S. senator, has described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a genocide, an accusation rejected by Israel and the White House. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing primary rival Haley Stevens, their largest investment ever in a race.
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said it's clear that voters across the country are rebelling against a political system they see as rigged and are yearning for candidates willing to fight on their behalf.
He said candidates like El-Sayed would serve as proof of concept going into 2028 that “bold, shake-up-the system economic fighters" are more electable in purple and red states than "stale, status quo corporate-aligned Democrats.”
In Washington, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., downplayed the idea that the ideological divisions would endanger Democrats.
“A healthy party is a party that has arguments," he said. “I think our party should be debating ideas. We should be having hotly contested primaries."
Republicans are facing their own challenges as they try to buck historic precedent and maintain congressional control.
Trump reshaped this year’s Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists to replace them. That includes the Senate race in Texas, where he successfully ousted longtime Sen. John Cornyn, whom he saw as insufficiently loyal, and endorsed Ken Paxton, a fiery conservative with a lengthy history of corruption allegations.
Republican leaders had warned his nomination would put the state in play and force the party to spend millions of dollars defending what would have otherwise been a safe seat.
Another challenge has emerged in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump last year over healthcare spending. Democrats hope to flip the seat with former Gov. Roy Cooper.
Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist, said Trump “has exacerbated the problem” of a political culture that has produced more extreme candidates on both sides of the aisle thanks to closed primaries.
Republicans have historically struggled when Trump is not on the ballot. But he also risks weighing candidates down.
Just 37% of U.S. adults approve of how he's handling the presidency, according to the most recent AP-NORC poll, which shows deep dissatisfactions over his handling of the economy and other issues.
But instead of staying focused on lowering prices, Trump has continued his bombardment of Iran in a struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies. He also delivered a primetime address to the nation in which he again sowed doubts about the legitimacy of U.S. elections and continued to dispute his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden in an appeal for more restrictive voting laws.
“Trump is our biggest ally," said Lake, the Democratic pollster and consultant. “He’s the best things that Democrats have going. And it’s the gift that keeps on going."
But Jenny Beth Martin, chair of the grassroots conservative group Tea Party Patriots Action, disagreed.
“President Trump is the single greatest advantage Republicans have in the midterm elections," she said in a statement. “The energy and enthusiasm he generates is incomparable, and we’re counting on him to motivate his supporters to go to the polls.”
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Associated Press writers Scott Bauer in Madison, Wisconsin, and Steven Sloan in Washington contributed to this report.
