SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Exit polls suggested that South Korea's ruling liberal party was projected to win a landslide victory in Wednesday's mayoral and other local elections, a result that if confirmed would give President Lee Jae Myung a firmer political mandate to advance his agenda.
A victory by Lee's Democratic Party had been widely expected because its main rival, the conservative People Power Party, remains in disarray after President Yoon
Suk Yeol was removed from office and sentenced to life in prison over his martial law debacle in late 2024.
The joint exit polls by South Korea’s three major TV stations — KBS, MBC and SBS — showed the Democratic Party was forecast to win at least 11 of the 16 mayoral and provincial gubernatorial posts up for grabs in Wednesday's elections. The polls suggested the PPP had a clear lead in only one race, while the other four races were too close to call.
“The conservatives’ support base has been fractured and weakened in the wake of Yoon’s impeachment, while the liberals’ support base has grown stronger," said Jeong Han-Wool, director of the Korean People Research Institute. “A win by the ruling party would help provide the Lee government with a considerably stable political foundation."
Thursday will mark one year in office for Lee, who won a snap election triggered after Yoon's ouster. Lee's approval ratings still hover over 60%. He's been credited with what he calls “pragmatic diplomacy” that eased concerns that his rule would hurt ties with the U.S. and Japan. His popularity has also been attributed to a booming stock market and efforts to be more transparent about his decision-making procedures.
Whatever the outcome of Wednesday’s election, Lee’s foreign policy agenda will likely remain unchanged. The Democratic Party would also maintain its majority status at parliament, though 14 new members of the 300-member National Assembly will be chosen in by-elections on Wednesday.
With more allies at mayoral and gubernatorial posts, Lee could pursue his regional policies more easily and effectively, given 14 of the 16 regional leadership posts are currently held by the PPP, said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership.
That will help his party's preparations for the 2028 parliamentary elections, Choi said.
The Seoul mayoral election is considered the most important one. Without winning it, experts said the Democratic Party couldn't claim an outright victory in overall elections, no matter how many races it won.
The race pits the Democratic Party’s Chong Won-o, a former Seoul district head who rose after Lee publicly praised his governance last October, against current mayor and political heavyweight Oh Se-hoon with the PPP.
The exit polls showed Chong running ahead of Oh by 5.4 percentage points.
On Tuesday, Oh accused Chong of relying on “the president’s coattails,” while Chong slammed Oh over what he called the mayor’s incompetent and irresponsible governance style.
The PPP is still struggling with internal feuding between reformists who joined the Democratic Party-led push to impeach Yoon and his loyalists who attempted to protect the embattled leader.
Among the candidates running for the parliamentary by-elections is Han Dong-hoon, leader of the reformist faction who was eventually expelled from the PPP. Pre-election surveys show Han, now an independent, holding a slim lead over the Democratic Party’s Ha Jung-woo, a former Lee adviser on artificial intelligence, in a race in Busan, the country’s second biggest city.
Jeong, the institute director, said that a Han victory could help anti-Yoon reformists regroup and emerge as a new force among the struggling conservatives in South Korea. But Choi said Han’s win could worsen a divide in the conservatives because Yoon loyalists would feel a sense of crisis and close ranks further.
