NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market careened through a manic Monday, going from a steep early loss to a modest gain as oil prices whipped from their highest price since 2022 back below $100 per barrel.
The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.5% before flipping to a gain of 0.8% near the end of the day's trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed back its early plunge of nearly 900 points to rise 261 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite was 1.3% higher,
as of 3:34 p.m. Eastern time.
They're the latest hour-to-hour swings to pummel financial markets because of the uncertainty about just how high oil prices will go because of the war with Iran and how long they will stay there.
Early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, briefly touched $119.50. It hadn’t been that expensive since the summer of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
If oil prices stay very high for very long, households’ budgets already stretched by high inflation could break under the pressure. Companies, meanwhile, would see their own bills jump for fuel and to stock items on their store shelves or in their data warehouses. It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy, “stagflation,” where growth stagnates and inflation remains high.
But oil prices quickly pared their huge gains Monday, initially on talk that seven of the world's largest economies could coordinate moves to push back on the spikes. A barrel of Brent crude pulled back to settle at $98.96 and then kept falling afterward toward $95.
A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude touched $119.48 during the morning, then pulled back to settle at $94.77 and then sank below $85 late Monday.
All the while, U.S. stock prices moved in the opposite direction as oil prices, like they did through the huge swings that rocked Wall Street last week.
The U.S. stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from past military conflicts, as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long. Some professional investors continue to suggest that drops in prices for stocks could ultimately offer opportunities to buy them at cheaper levels before they rise again.
Even with all the recent swings in the market, the S&P 500 index that sits at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is still within 3% of its record set in January.
“We continue to believe that the current acute shortage of oil will be reversed in the coming months as new supply comes online and oil should drop significantly,” according to Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
All that, though, hinges on the flow of oil returning toward normal. At the moment, it’s far from that.
Consider the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s coast that a fifth of the world’s oil sails through on a typical day. Now, tanker traffic has all but stopped because of worries about a possible attack by Iran.
If the strait remains closed for only a few weeks, the price of oil could push to $150 per barrel of higher, according to oil and gas strategists at Macquarie Research.
In stock markets abroad, where economies are more dependent on the import of oil and natural gas, stocks fell more sharply. South Korea’s Kospi sank 6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 5.2% and France’s CAC 40 dropped 1%.
A Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, called for an end to the attacks and said strikes on non-military targets and civilians should be condemned. Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung warned against hoarding, panic buying and collusion between refiners and gas stations.
Both sides in the war struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian ones. Bahrain accused Iran of hitting one of the desalination plants that are crucial for drinking water in Gulf countries. Its national oil company declared force majeure after the country’s sole oil refinery was attacked. Israel struck oil depots in Tehran, sending up thick smoke and causing environmental alerts.
President Donald Trump said late Sunday that high oil prices at the moment are worth the cost.
“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” he said in a posting on his social media network.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.10% from 4.15% late Friday.
Worries about high inflation and oil prices are pushing upward on Treasury yields, and the 10-year yield briefly rose above 4.20% early Monday. But worries about a potentially slowing economy are pulling downward at the same time.
On Friday, a discouragingly weak report on the U.S. job market showed that employers cut more jobs last month than they added.
___
AP Writers Matt Ott, Kim Tong-hyung and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.
