DALLAS (AP) — The mess in Texas may be just beginning.
Four-term Sen. John Cornyn and his allies spent nearly $70 million to survive the first round of the party’s nomination fight on Tuesday. He was slightly ahead of conservative firebrand Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, with more votes still being counted on Wednesday.
Both now advance to a May 26 runoff election that Republicans fear could be even uglier and more expensive than the first
contest.
“It's judgment day for Ken Paxton,” Cornyn said on Tuesday night.
But whether any level of attacks can stop Paxton — who has long been shadowed by allegations of corruption and infidelity — remains unclear, especially as he fashions himself as the kind of Make America Great Again warrior President Donald Trump needs in Washington.
Paxton was defiant when speaking to a few hundred supporters at a Dallas hotel ballroom, a far different scene than Cornyn's small press conference.
“We just sent a message, loud and clear, to Washington,” he said. “We are not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let you buy the seat.”
Republicans are sweating the runoff because the 83-day sprint takes place as operatives in both major political parties acknowledge that Democrats have an unusually solid chance of winning a Senate seat in Texas this year, something that hasn't happened in nearly four decades.
Democrats nominated state Rep. James Talarico, who Republicans immediately attacked as a far-left extremist — even though they privately consider the 36-year-old Christian progressive to be a stronger general election candidate than his primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
The Texas contest is playing out as Trump fights to maintain control of Congress for his final two years in the White House. Republicans are more confident about keeping their majority in the Senate than the House, but a competitive race in Texas could scramble the map, or at least consume resources that the party needs in more competitive states like North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.
Republican leaders in Washington insist that Cornyn has the best shot, especially after he finished ahead of Paxton in Tuesday's primary, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt finishing a distant third and conceding. Cornyn's campaign argued that a runoff wouldn't even be necessary if it wasn't for “Wesley Hunt's vanity campaign.”
“Paxton’s problems aren’t just an issue in a Republican primary; they also threaten to put the Senate seat at risk due to his lack of strength against Democrat nominee Talarico," a memo from Cornyn's team said.
But Paxton and his allies are showing no signs of backing down.
“The D.C. establishment has done its job: it rallied around its wounded incumbent, opened the fundraising spigot, and flooded the airwaves. But the results, the data, and the reality on the ground all point to the same conclusion: John Cornyn has no viable path to the Republican nomination,” the pro-Paxton Lone Star PAC wrote in a memo. “Cornyn should suspend his campaign, concede the nomination to Ken Paxton, and refuse to allow another $100+ million in Republican resources to be burned in a race that is already decided.”
The only person who might be able to forestall the intraparty fight, or at least limit its fallout, is Trump. But the president has declined to endorse a candidate in the primary, describing all of them as “great,” and it was unclear if anything would change in the runoff.
Without Trump's support, Cornyn made it clear that he would make the case himself. He told reporters that Paxton would be “a dead weight at the top of the ticket for Republicans" in November.
“I’ve worked for decades to build the Republican Party, both here in Texas and nationally,” Cornyn said. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years.”
Cornyn will face intense fundraising pressure, having already spent so much money in the first round of the primary. Aides said he had some small fundraisers planned but nothing in the days immediately after this week's vote as he returns to Washington.
In addition, Paxton's allies are confident that the political landscape will tilt in the attorney general's favor.
“The casual and moderate Republican voters who are most likely to support an establishment incumbent are the least likely to return for a runoff,” said the memo from the Lone Star PAC. “The committed conservative activists who form Paxton’s base are the most likely to show up.”
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