No. 6 Oregon enters the home stretch of the regular season needing to win out to stay alive for a second straight College Football Playoff bid. It begins Saturday at Iowa's Kinnick Stadium, where highly ranked visiting teams usually must be at their best to leave with a victory.
The Ducks (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) saw their margin for error reduced this week when they landed at No. 9 in the initial CFP rankings. They have a 10-point home loss to Indiana and their best
win so far is against Northwestern. The committee judged their resume accordingly.
Oregon will go against a team on the rise in Iowa (6-2, 4-1), still outside The Associated Press poll but No. 20 in the CFP rankings after winning three straight. The Hawkeyes come in 4-4 at home against top-10 teams since 2016, the third-best record among teams that have been in the Big Ten since then.
“I’ll probably say they’re underrated,” Ducks linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei said. “They lost to Indiana, and some people could have said they should have won that game."
The forecast calls for a high of 44 and a 100% chance of rain. The Ducks are conditioned to play in wet weather and did in their home win over Wisconsin on Oct. 25. Iowa, which runs on two-thirds of its plays, has no issue with the rain. The Hawkeyes have a 235-pound quarterback in Mark Gronowski who has been more dangerous with his legs than his arm and a short passing game predicated on screens.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning's biggest concerns are Iowa's defense and special teams. He said his offense will be challenged by a defensive line that eats up blocks and a secondary that limits big plays. He called Kaden Wetjen the best punt returner in the country.
“This team is not getting near enough credit for the team they are,” Lanning said.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore left the game against Wisconsin in the third quarter because of a bloody nose. His facemask appeared to push into his face when he was tackled. Lanning said Moore participated in every practice the last two weeks.
The Hawkeyes lost 20-15 to Indiana, had an open date and won three straight. Then their roll was slowed because their second open date came last week. Judging from intel coach Kirk Ferentz gathered from his secretary, Rita Foley, not everyone was happy.
“Phil is grumpy because he didn’t want to have a bye week," Ferentz said, referring to defensive coordinator Phil Parker.
Oregon also is coming off its second open date.
Iowa's 4-1 start in Big Ten play is its best since 2015, when the conference was split into divisions. The Hawkeyes started that season 12-0 and went to the Big Ten title game. The Hawks already are bowl-eligible for a 13th straight year and have an outside shot at the CFP.
Until the Ducks play at Nebraska in 2027, Iowa City is the closest Lanning will be to his old stomping grounds. He grew up, went to college and began his coaching career in the Kansas City, Missouri, area. Based on his experience as a Pittsburgh graduate assistant in 2011, when the Panthers visited Kinnick, this will be no homecoming.
“I’m sure I’ll have some family and friends there,” he said, “but this environment is a great one. They do it the right way, obviously, with the children’s hospital, pink locker rooms. There’s a feel to this one, and it means a lot to the people of Iowa.”
Ferentz was Iowa's 34-year-old offensive line coach the last time Oregon visited Kinnick. That was 1989, when Rich Brooks' Ducks went home with a 44-6 victory over the 24th-ranked Hawkeyes. Oregon went on to finish 8-4, its most wins since 1963.
“All of a sudden that program ascended,” Ferentz said. “It was like, wow, how did that happen? Where did that come from? I think Rich Brooks was a guy who was kind of the coach of that organization and got them going. They were good through the ’90s, and then they’ve exploded this last 25 years.”
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