The India Meteorological Department on Friday said El Niño conditions are currently active over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are forecast to intensify
through the Southwest Monsoon season, a development with significant implications for India's summer weather. In what the IMD describes as a "coupled ocean-atmosphere response," warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have triggered atmospheric changes consistent with a full El Niño pattern. The Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), IMD's primary seasonal forecast model, projects further strengthening of these conditions in the coming months. El Niño events are historically associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall over India and heightened heat stress across the subcontinent. Their intensification through June and July raises concerns about the monsoon's strength and distribution this year. On the Indian Ocean front, however, the outlook is more neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a sea surface temperature gradient that can significantly modulate monsoon rainfall, is currently in neutral phase and is expected to remain so through the season, according to MMCFS forecasts. A positive IOD typically counterbalances El Niño's suppressive effect on monsoon, but its absence this year removes that buffer. Amid this evolving climate backdrop, the IMD has issued heatwave warnings for several regions over the next few days. Heatwave conditions are very likely at isolated places over Vidarbha from June 12–16, and over Marathwada, Telangana, and West Rajasthan from June 12–13. Residents in affected areas have been advised to avoid going out during peak afternoon hours, stay well-hydrated, and take precautions against sun exposure.
