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As no party secured the required majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the state has entered a new phase of political uncertainty
and intense negotiations. While the sources said on Wednesday that the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee Political Affairs Committee has unanimously backed extending support to the Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to form a “secular” government. A fresh rift appears to be opening up within the AIADMK, as more than 25 party MLAs are said to be backing senior leader C.V. Shanmugam’s push to extend support to Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
The move, however, has reportedly not found favour with party chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), who, as per sources, is understood to be reluctant about aligning with the actor-turned-politician’s outfit.
‘The Missing Numbers’ Explained
Actor-politician C. Joseph Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) staked a claim to form the government in Tamil Nadu after emerging as the single largest party in the Assembly elections, winning 108 seats. According to Election Commission data, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) secured 59 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won 47. The Indian National Congress bagged 5 seats, followed by the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) with 4.Smaller parties also registered a presence, with the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Indian Union Muslim League winning 2 seats each. The Bharatiya Janata Party managed 1 seat, while others, including Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, together accounted for 3 seats.
Hence, now if options are to be dissected, Vijay has three probable methods to reach the golden number. The first option—a Left-secular bloc with Congress, CPI, CPI(M), VCK, and IUML—gets him to 121, but with a fragile margin vulnerable to defections. The second, AIADMK’s outside support, offers a stable 155 but undermines TVK’s anti-Dravidian positioning and risks sudden withdrawal. The third adds PMK to the secular bloc for 125 seats, but introduces caste tensions and ideological friction. Each path gives Vijay numbers, but none guarantees stability, making government formation possible yet politically precarious from day one.
Why The Numbers Do Not Add Up With Congress
Despite the emerging political alignment, the arithmetic remains challenging. The Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, falling 10 short of the majority mark of 118 in the Assembly.The Congress, which secured five seats, has not yet taken a final decision on extending support. Even if it does, the comed strength may still fall short once post-election adjustments are factored in. Vijay won from both Perambur and Tiruchirappalli East and will have to vacate one seat as per rules. If he retains Perambur, TVK’s tally will drop to 107. The effective strength may further reduce to 106 once the Speaker is elected, as the Speaker does not vote during a confidence motion.
In that scenario, TVK would still need the support of at least 12 additional MLAs to cross the majority mark. Even with Congress backing, the numbers underline a clear reality that alliances alone may not be enough to secure power.
