For much of last year, heavily discounted Russian crude formed the bulk of India’s oil imports, providing a financial lifeline to Moscow while saving New
Delhi billions on its import bill. US sanctions, tariffs, and diplomatic pressure were expected to curtail these purchases, yet Russian oil flows have shown surprising resilience, and analysts predict that significant imports may continue into 2026. “The world has become more challenging, despite the fact that there is no shortage of energy globally,” Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said on Friday during a preview of India Energy Week in Goa, the country’s premier energy event. According to Puri, market conditions remain the key driver of India’s oil procurement strategy, according to a Bloomberg report. Even with US pressure, India has maintained a steady intake of Russian crude. Benchmark Urals crude prices for India have declined due to US sanctions on major producers, making Russian oil difficult for refiners to resist. State-owned Bharat Petroleum has also sought to secure long-term contracts from Middle Eastern suppliers, including Abu Dhabi’s Murban, Iraq’s Basrah, and Oman crude, while Indian Oil Corp. continues to expand its spot-market purchases, the report added. Diversification And Strategic Buying Despite strong Russian imports, India is diversifying its sources, as per the report. Reliance Industries, traditionally conservative in Russian deals, has placed new orders for non-sanctioned cargoes. IOC, BPCL, and Nayara Energy continue to buy Russian crude, ensuring a stable supply. Analysts like Naveen Das of Kpler Ltd. note that India is likely to maintain a “healthy baseload of Russian crude” while exploring additional sources such as non-sanctioned Venezuelan barrels, states the report. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, emphasised: "The combination of US sanctions and the EU ban on products derived from Russian crude is taking a toll on imports and is increasing demand for non-sanctioned crude. But I strongly doubt that India will give up importing Russian oil," the report added. Global Market And Future Outlook India’s options have expanded due to global oversupply. The country has increased its supplier base from 27 to 41 sources in recent years, aiming to raise refining capacity from 258 million tons annually to 309.5 million tons by 2030, the Bloomberg report said. Analysts suggest that a potential India-US trade deal or geopolitical shifts could slightly reduce Russian imports, but market forces and competitive pricing will likely keep them significant.
