US air travel is unlikely to return to normal immediately after the federal government shutdown ends, with airlines warning that it could take days, or even
longer, for flight schedules and staffing to stabilize. According to Airlines for America, a trade group representing major carriers, airlines will need several days to reposition crews and realign flight schedules once the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifts restrictions on air traffic. “It will take time, and there will be residual effects for days,” the group said, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. FAA Restrictions, Staffing Shortages Weigh on Recovery The FAA ordered airlines to reduce air traffic by 4% at 40 major airports last week amid staffing shortages. That cut was raised to 6% on Tuesday and will remain in place until sufficient air-traffic controllers return to work, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said. Adding to the challenge, a dozen or more controllers opted to retire each day during the shutdown, Duffy noted, stretching already thin resources. He said flight restrictions could be lifted within a week of the government reopening, depending on how quickly staffing levels recover. “We’re working hard trying to keep the skies safe,” Duffy said Wednesday. Airlines Struggle to Rebalance Operations Major US carriers including American Airlines, Delta, and JetBlue have already cut flights and warned of continuing cancellations even after operations resume. “Given the unpredictable operating environment we’re in, we expect there will be continued cancellations and delays,” American Airlines COO David Seymour told staff in an internal memo Monday. As of Tuesday, around 5% of US flights were canceled, down from 10% on Sunday, according to aviation data provider Cirium. Wednesday’s cancellation rate stood at 3.5%, while 2.7% of Thursday’s flights had already been scrapped. Controllers Await Back Pay An open question is how quickly all air-traffic controllers will return to work. Many had called in sick during the shutdown due to unpaid wages. During the 2019 government shutdown, it took more than two months for controllers to receive their full compensation, said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. Duffy said this time, controllers would receive 70% of their missed pay within two days of reopening, with the remainder expected within a week. Lessons From Past Disruptions Airlines have experience ramping up flights after crises such as weather events and cyber outages. After a CrowdStrike-related tech outage in July 2024, most major carriers recovered in about two days, except Delta Air Lines, which took nearly five. Similarly, when Hurricane Debby hit Florida last year, cancellation rates normalized within two days. However, analysts say recovery from the shutdown could be smoother since airline crews aren’t as geographically scattered as during weather events. “We expect operations to stabilize within two to three days of reopening,” said Mike Arnot, spokesperson for Cirium. The FAA’s gradual lifting of flight restrictions and the uncertain pace of controller returns mean travelers should brace for continued disruptions. Airlines are also trying to preserve resources ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel season, said Steve Olson, senior vice president of system operations at JetBlue. “We have to make sure we’ve got enough reserves and resilience as we go into that period,” he said. For now, the skies may remain crowded with uncertainty, long after Washington reopens for business.
