Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged ahead of US President Donald Trump in at least one prediction market tracking possible contenders for the
2026 Nobel Peace Prize. According to Covers.com, which tracks prices on Kalshi, Carney was trading at a 14% implied chance on Monday. He was followed by Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 13% and Doctors Without Borders at 10%. Trump's implied chance had fallen sharply amid the war in Iran. "Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what's happened this year in Iran we can't see that happening again," Covers.com said in its latest update. "He may well have decent odds at sports books, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is near-zero." Prediction-market prices are not predictions by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. They reflect traders' positions and can change with news and political developments. The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is due to be announced in October. Carney-Trump Tensions The shift comes amid increasingly strained relations between Trump and Carney's governments, including an ongoing trade dispute. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on some Canadian goods and announced additional restrictions affecting Canadian products and companies seeking US government contracts. Trump has also repeatedly criticised Carney, at times referring to him as "governor" rather than prime minister, while pushing to rename Lake Ontario as "Lake America".
Carney has responded by presenting Canada as a sovereign middle power willing to resist US economic pressure while keeping the door open to negotiations.
Earlier this month, as tensions over trade increased, Carney told the administration through reporters: "Stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough."
He was also photographed looking at his phone while Trump delivered a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on 22 September.
Trump's Nobel Ambitions
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to receive the Nobel Peace Prize and spent much of last year arguing that he deserved the award for what he described as his role in resolving several conflicts.
The Nobel committee instead awarded the 2025 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader and democracy advocate María Corina Machado.
Trump subsequently received other awards from organisations and individuals. The Richard Nixon Foundation gave him its Architect of Peace Award, while FIFA President Gianni Infantino presented him with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize.
Prediction markets have previously placed Trump among the leading potential contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize, but the prices are highly volatile and can shift in response to news and geopolitical developments. Covers.com reported that Trump had been the favourite in last year's market before Machado was announced as the winner.
